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Thread 'Please provide more information about the models and the parameters included (or not)'

Thread 'Please provide more information about the models and the parameters included (or not)'

Questions and Answers : Wish list : Please provide more information about the models and the parameters included (or not)
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old_user156021

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Message 20882 - Posted: 1 Mar 2006, 3:13:19 UTC

The \'Background science\' and \'Introduction to modelling\' pages in the \'Climate Science\' section are very informative. But they don\'t address the question of whether the current crop of models can adequately model Earths climate given the complexity of the climate system. The classic climate change sceptic\'s response to the endeavour is to question all the assumptions and to point out the factors that the models do not take account. Fair enough; for all I know perhaps seemingly nutty ideas such as the \"effect of solar wind on magnetism in the upper atmosphere\" is so profound that it makes the models meaningless.

It would be really informative if a page could be added that lists all the forcings that might or might not influence the climate, and provides a short discussion of their likely importance, how they are dealt with in the models, and how they will be accounted for in future models.

Some examples that really interest me are:

i) The effect of methane, to what degree this will be enhanced with the melting of arctic permafrosts.

ii) The influence of land use change
(See Europe\'s chill linked to disease for a fascinating article that suggests it may be way bigger than previously suspected)

It would also be helpful to have some information of how various models are interrelated. For example: the ClimatePrediction.net experiments do not appear to try to predict rates at which C02 will rise. Rather they are aimed at working out what will happen to the climate if CO2 does rise by a specified amount. The predictions of CO2 rise are done with other models and the results of those provide the context for the ClimatePrediction.net experiments. It would by great to have this kind of thing explained.

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Les Bayliss
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Message 20885 - Posted: 1 Mar 2006, 5:14:21 UTC

These are the types of questions that are regularly discussed on the Message Board here.
Perhaps you would like to join us there.

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Questions and Answers : Wish list : Please provide more information about the models and the parameters included (or not)

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