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Message 29225 - Posted 12 Jun 2007 16:34:25 UTC

    Last modified: 12 Jun 2007 18:23:10 UTC

    On behalf of the cpdn research team in Oxford, Milo has launched a special Results website

    http://results.cpdn.org/

    It makes the results of our completed 160-year climate models freely available to climate researchers worldwide. There are departments of Climatology and Atmospheric Physics in countries and universities where computing resources are not available to produce the sort of enormous data bank, or ensemble of models, that the Climate Prediction team now has. This initiative therefore makes our results available to many more researchers than was previously the case, without our efforts needing to be duplicated. More than 11000 of our BBC and cpdn models are now available for researchers to download from the website.

    I am sure all our members will welcome such free and open exchange of research data. In many scientific fields, both data and publications are increasingly being made freely available by their creators.

    Selected models could also potentially be used as a teaching resource to demonstrate aspects of climatology or this type of numerical modelling.

    Milo demonstrated the new website at the recent symposium about climate change at St John\'s College, Oxford.

    It is suggested that we should not all register on this new website, which is primarily meant for climate researchers who may wish to select and download models. We may, of course, all view it at the above link.

    There is now an extra section on the cpdn independent forum underneath the Climate section. It\'s for news and discussion about the Results website.

    It goes without saying that this initiative has only been possible thanks to the efforts of all our volunteer BBC and cpdn crunchers.

    Please note that the cpdn Results website is not a boinc project. All the models/workunits there have already been crunched. This new facility is a research tool for scientists. And the launch of this facility doesn\'t mean our model crunching for cpdn is over! As long as climate models are available for download from cpdn, it means that the research team needs more.
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    Message 29898 - Posted 8 Aug 2007 20:54:46 UTC

      Last modified: 26 Sep 2007 22:52:14 UTC

      Crandles has described here the science behind the different types of model available at cpdn, with links to many of the most relevant climate science websites.

      Brief technical summaries of the types of model can be read here. An explanation of how the server will apply your model preferences (in your account on the project preferences page) has been added.

      Members registered on the independent forum (get there through my signature) can receive email notification of new posts in the News thread by clicking \'Watch this topic for replies\' at the bottom left of the page. (Plus, of course, any other threads you choose on that forum.)
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      Message 31271 - Posted 4 Nov 2007 12:31:33 UTC

        Last modified: 17 Dec 2007 19:28:36 UTC


        On the independent forum the way to report anything offensive is to send a private message to one of the moderators.

        On the boinc forums (CPDN, beta, SAP and BBC) inappropriate posts can be reported by clicking the X under the post. In the private messaging facility we can specify members we don\'t want to receive messages from. Inappropriate PMs can be reported by sending a PM to a moderator.
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        Message 31278 - Posted 5 Nov 2007 10:35:20 UTC

          REMINDER

          On all the ClimatePrediction forums the private messaging facility should only be used for personal and private messages.

          It can be used for communication between existing team members because they know each other, but should not be used for team announcements to non-members, or for team recruitment. The place for posts about team recruitment and announcements to the public is the forum Cafe.
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          Message 32995 - Posted 16 Mar 2008 13:58:50 UTC

            Last modified: 13 Aug 2009 14:46:55 UTC

            The server status of ClimatePrediction projects can be checked here:

            CPDN
            http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/server_status.php
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            Message 33883 - Posted 19 May 2008 18:01:25 UTC

              Last modified: 26 Nov 2008 0:58:43 UTC

              CPDN

              Since the CPDN server BOINC software upgrade, there are some changes on the Task details web pages of our models.

              * On the pages of successfully completed models we now see \'Validate state - Workunit error - check skipped\'. This looks like an error but isn\'t. It\'s there because of the way many other BOINC projects validate completed tasks. It doesn\'t apply to tasks from any ClimatePrediction project, so please ignore this line.

              * On the same Task details pages there\'s a line called stderr out. When a task has finished computation, whether crashed or completed, clicking the + shows some details from the model\'s run log. Sometimes more details, sometimes fewer.

              Here\'s one of mine so you can see these features.
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              Message 34020 - Posted 6 Jun 2008 13:02:51 UTC

                Last modified: 19 Jun 2008 0:14:14 UTC

                The BOINC FAQs are now available in German, Dutch and Spanish as well as English and are beginning to appear in Czech.

                This documentation was Jorden\'s initiative and Neil Munday kindly hosts it on his server.

                Jorden still needs two French translators for the FAQs. They should be native French speakers and have a good understanding of BOINC and its terminology. Details about how to volunteer are posted on the boinc_dev forum.

                Reminder: Do not stop a slab HADSM model or exit from BOINC after a phase change from phase 1 > 2 or 2 > 3 until the model has passed at least one save point after the phase change. Otherwise the model may go back to the beginning of the phase.
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                Message 34343 - Posted 22 Jul 2008 9:36:51 UTC

                  Last modified: 22 Jul 2008 9:37:32 UTC

                  New CPDN Moderators

                  Ananas and Gerald Davison have been appointed moderators here and on the CPDN independent forum.
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                  Message 34345 - Posted 22 Jul 2008 16:27:40 UTC

                    Thyme Lawn has updated the CPDN moderator list here.
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                    Message 34888 - Posted 4 Sep 2008 2:46:32 UTC

                      Last modified: 20 Aug 2009 22:09:52 UTC

                      Information about BOINC6

                      Further information about BOINC6 can be found in the BOINC FAQs. The most useful FAQ items for BOINC6 are The Big BOINC Answer thread, and here (to read after installation) and here. There is also a preview of the BOINC6 protected/service installation process here. If you wish to install in screensaver mode ie not as a service, the preview is also useful.

                      Many of these FAQs are also available in German, Dutch, Czech, French and Spanish by clicking on the flags at the top of the page.

                      Please note that BOINC6 installs itself in two folders in two different locations, one for BOINC itself and the other for Data, which includes all project and model/task data. The Big BOINC Answer Thread lists the default BOINC6 locations for Windows, Linux and Mac computers. When we install BOINC6 it is a good idea to write down on paper the complete path to where the BOINC Data folder is located. It will then be easy to find it again. When we upgrade from one version of BOINC6 to a newer version of BOINC6 it will be advisable to use the same location again.

                      Windows may hide the BOINC Data folder by default, so you may need to set the flag in the Windows options to show all folders/files before looking for the folder.

                      BOINC6 Backups

                      Before upgrading to BOINC6, make a backup of the complete contents of your Boinc folder! Here are the READMEs about backups.

                      In BOINC6 the BOINC program folder content becomes static; we do not need to back it up. Backing up the BOINC Data folder in full keeps our models backed up. (Members who have Mac with a later version of BOINC5 should already be doing this.)

                      The backup methods described in the READMEs also work for backing up the BOINC Data folder. A Data folder backup must be restored to the Data folder in the same location as before.

                      If you make a backup when you have BOINC5 and need to restore a crashed model after upgrading to BOINC6, please ask for advice on the forum. To avoid this situation it is a good idea to back up the BOINC6 Data folder soon after your BOINC upgrade.
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                      Message 34973 - Posted 13 Sep 2008 0:24:38 UTC

                        BOINC6 versions

                        Many computers with Windows and BOINC versions 6.2.14 and 6.2.16 are crashing models immediately after download with error code -185 and the message \'Can\'t get shared memory segment name: shmget() failed\'. This problem is happening with HADAM, HADSM and HADCM models (and also with tasks from some other BOINC projects). You can see the code and messages for finished models on their web page; click + beside \'stderr out\' to see these extra details.

                        Check your version of BOINC by right-clicking on the BOINC icon in the notification area, bottom right of the screen, and selecting About Boinc Manager.

                        Members with these earlier BOINC6 versions should upgrade as soon as possible to v. 6.2.18 which contains a fix. Download it from here. Please see previous posts in this news thread for links to information about BOINC6.

                        BOINC5 versions are not affected by this problem.
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                        Message 35223 - Posted 11 Oct 2008 13:23:27 UTC

                          Norton/Symantec upgrade to Norton Anti-Virus 2009 with Sonar feature

                          This upgrade could kill your current climate models; if your models cannot be restored from a backup they will be lost. So before members with Norton AV download this free upgrade they should back up the complete contents of the BOINC5 BOINC folder or the BOINC6 BOINC Data folder. After the upgrade you will need to add the BOINC or BOINC Data folder to your NAV exclusion list again. Members with NAV should read this and this thread. If you need advice please post in one of those threads.

                          This problem may also affect members of other BOINC projects.
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                          Message 35364 - Posted 24 Oct 2008 13:38:43 UTC

                            Last modified: 24 Oct 2008 13:45:59 UTC

                            HADCM v.6.02 on CPDN main project

                            We have discovered a bug in these models which were available for Windows, Linux and Mac between 29 Sep and 22 Oct 2008. They have now been replaced by HADCM 6.04 in which the defect appears to be fixed. Version 6.02 will produce valid data for research on the Geoengineering Experiment, but these models\' files will become abnormally large, up to 6.5GB by the time they complete. There is a risk that they will use all the disk space allocated to BOINC and crash.

                            Please see this thread for details about how you can identify and fix the problem. Apologies to members for the inconvenience caused.
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                            Message 35621 - Posted 1 Dec 2008 18:18:10 UTC

                              Last modified: 1 Dec 2008 18:21:20 UTC

                              Some links of interest:

                              Hiro Yamazaki of the CPDN research team has given details in the Climate Science section of the website about the Millennium Experiment.

                              Real Climate recently posted a comprehensive FAQ on climate models (of all types, not only the Met Office Unified Model that CPDN uses).

                              In March 2007 the organisation Sense about Science held a very informative symposium about climate change at St John\'s College, Oxford. Milo demonstrated CPDN models there. The talks have been made available for download here. (The files are rather large!)
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                              Message 35888 - Posted 10 Jan 2009 20:18:51 UTC

                                Updated post

                                CPDN Model Graphics

                                Some members running CPDN version 6.** models with BOINC 5.*.* cannot see their model graphics. The Show Graphics button is greyed out some or all of the time. The graphics of CPDN 6.** models were intended to be fully backwards-compatible with BOINC 5 but this was not 100% successful.

                                If you have this problem with BOINC v.5 you could exit from BOINC then restart it. If that does not reenable the graphics please upgrade to BOINC 6.2.19. See the post three above this about BOINC versions.

                                Anyone with BOINC 6.2.19 or later who experiences this problem with CPDN 6.** model versions is asked to report it on the CPDN forum here.

                                REMINDER

                                It is important to look at models\' graphics occasionally, especially HADSM and HADSM MH models. These two model types

                                * should not be stopped by suspending the model or exiting from BOINC while they are doing their end-of-phase post-processing in early December at the end of each 15-year phase. Please wait until after at least one extra 3-day checkpoint after post-processing before stopping these models.

                                * in some cases develop into slow- or fast-processing \'iceworlds\'. This abnormality produces monochrome graphics. Please report iceworlds on the forum for a definite diagnosis before aborting them. Forum reports allow the moderators to send private messages warning other members with models from the same workunit. To receive email notification of such private messages you must enable it in the Community Preferences of your account.

                                After opening the model graphics click Z then 8 on the keyboard to see extra details including the countdown to checkpoints. For example, E shows sulphur emissions and V has been added for vorticity.
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                                Message 35980 - Posted 20 Jan 2009 22:56:00 UTC

                                  Last modified: 1 Mar 2009 19:40:04 UTC

                                  Reminder: If you have BOINC v.6 installed as a service ie in protected mode (which is the default installation mode), in order to exit completely from BOINC to make a backup or turn the computer off you need to do two things:
                                  * BOINC Manager > Advanced view > Advanced > Shut down connected client. This shuts down the service.
                                  * File > Exit to close down BOINC Manager.

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                                  Message 36049 - Posted 28 Jan 2009 20:14:49 UTC

                                    Last modified: 28 Jan 2009 20:15:38 UTC

                                    Dave Frame and his colleagues at CPDN have published a paper titled \'The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble\' in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society which is in London.

                                    http://journals.royalsociety.org/content/w214633520523134/fulltext.pdf

                                    These 160- and 80-year models were run initially by BBC participants and later also by CPDN members. Other types of CPDN model are also discussed in the paper. Most of the authors of the paper can be seen here. The last reference in the paper shows more research by the CPDN team in progress.

                                    The paper is a 16-page pdf download, not too large for most of us.

                                    A very small number of brave and loyal BBC members are still uploading trickles from their Climate Change Experiment models more than two years after starting them. The top BBC project participants can be seen here.
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                                    Message 36059 - Posted 31 Jan 2009 12:03:41 UTC

                                      Last modified: 31 Jan 2009 12:07:31 UTC

                                      CPDN main project and Beta

                                      Update of announcement made on 24 October.

                                      HADCM 6.02 (from CPDN) and HADRM 6.00 spinup models (from Beta) accumulate their .nc files and do not regularly delete them as they should. These models\' folders become larger and larger as they progress. So large that some of these models will crash because they use up all the disk space allocated to BOINC. There are detailed instructions for manually deleting the .nc files here. In that thread please also read Richard Haselgrove\'s post as he points out the safest and easiest time to delete the files.

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                                      Message 36426 - Posted 20 Mar 2009 13:23:16 UTC

                                        CPDN all projects

                                        We have now completed over 30,000 HadAM and 21,000 HadSMMH models. Our crunching statistics can be seen on the CPDN home page here.

                                        At the beginning of March we reached the impressive total of 300,000 completed HadSM models. These models have been used for several research projects. Ben Sanderson, who has now left Oxford, analysed them using neural nets. Dan Rowlands, who can be seen here on the research team\'s new web page, is building on Ben\'s work by using emulators (techniques to perform regression) to fit a surface to the slab model response in parameter space.

                                        Dan says \'While Ben used neural nets, I am using a technique called Random Forests as an emulator, which benefits from requiring very little tuning to get good results. It also provides a measure of uncertainty in each prediction. I am using the slab models as a test bed for this technique, and so have been sending out some verification runs on CPDN - i.e. train the emulator on this part of the current CPDN ensemble, then use the emulator to predict the output for new parameter combinations then distribute these models on CPDN and compare the actual model response to what was predicted. I distributed around 10,000 models (each with an initial condition ensemble of 4 members) based on a continuous sampling of parameter space (rather than the discrete sampling used in the original ensemble), and am currently analysing the results. I plan to compare different emulation techniques, namely neural nets v random forest v gaussian process emulators and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each.\'

                                        Random Forests

                                        Reminder: You may need to edit your model selection in the climateprediction section of account to tell the server whether you want to run the new short HadAM3P models. If you run too many of these side-by-side on a multi-core computer they will slow each other down, so let them run alongside other model types.
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                                        Message 36551 - Posted 29 Mar 2009 17:35:29 UTC

                                          Last modified: 20 Aug 2009 21:25:57 UTC

                                          At the time of this post, hadam3p (version 6.06) is NOT compatible with CPUs/processors without SSE2 capabilities. That means HADAM3P is NOT compatible with


                                          • Pentium 3, Pentium 3 based Celerons and Xeons, and older Intel processors, and
                                          • Athlon XP/MP, Athlon XP based Semprons/Durons, and older AMD processors.


                                          See this post for more information.

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                                          Message 36886 - Posted 8 May 2009 0:04:54 UTC

                                            Last week's issue of Nature was about climate change. It included two letters, Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C and Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne, which CPDN researchers contributed to.
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                                            Message 37003 - Posted 27 May 2009 20:10:20 UTC

                                              Mac users on the CPDN main project

                                              If you are running CPDN on a Mac you might find that tasks from some version 6 applications are crashing immediately.

                                              The HADCM3 and HADAM3P applications had to be compiled with the latest Fortran compiler, all other applications were compiled with the previous version. A Fortran dynamic library has to be re-distributed with Mac applications, with a different version being required for the 2 compilers. But the files have the same name, which creates an unavoidable conflict:


                                              • if the first CPDN task you download is not HADCM3 or HADAM3P you'll only be able to run tasks for the HADSM3, HADAM3 and HADSM3 Mid-Holocene applications.

                                              • if the first CPDN task you download is HADCM3 or HADAM3P it's possible that you'll only be able to run those applications.


                                              Tolu is working on resolving this, but in the meantime your best option is to modify your project preferences to exclude the applications you are having problems with.
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                                              Message 37555 - Posted 27 Jul 2009 20:30:14 UTC

                                                Last modified: 27 Jul 2009 20:31:59 UTC

                                                BBC Climate Change Experiment

                                                The BBC CCE project is being shut down. All models which are still running will be sent a killer trickle next time they send a message to the scheduler and you should not attempt to restore from backup. The scheduler and upload servers will be disabled at the end of this week and you will not be able to return any more trickles or upload files after that happens.

                                                The results which have been returned will be used as part of a submission to the IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). Carl Christensen is working part-time for CPDN on this and is adapting the model to collect some further data for the submission. This will be released on the main CPDN project.

                                                Any BBC CCE users who have yet to sign up for the main project should follow the instructions here

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                                                Message 37623 - Posted 3 Aug 2009 17:03:57 UTC

                                                  Last modified: 21 Aug 2009 9:18:29 UTC

                                                  This may be of interest to Facebook users who have not previously joined Boinc (since you are already a Boinc user then I would recommend keeping your existing setup, unless you want to start using the Grid Republic account manager).

                                                  Progress Thru Processors announcement

                                                  \"John Cooney\" wrote:
                                                  My name is John Cooney and I am a project lead at Intel. I wanted to share with the BOINC community a project that we are about to launch called Progress Thru Processors.

                                                  Intel is sponsoring Progress Thru Processors which is a Facebook application developed in association with GridRepublic and BOINC. Progress Thru Processors will feature Rosetta@home, Climateprediction.net and Africa@home (malariacontrol.net), but participants are not required to join these, and can add any BOINC project once the application is added to their profile.

                                                  Intel has been a supporter of volunteer computing for many years, dating back to SETI@home. We felt that by combining the networking power of Facebook with the promise of volunteer computing we could attract large numbers of new participants many of whom may never have even heard about volunteer computing.

                                                  In support of the project, the BOINC team is adding some interesting new features to the client, including an automatic proxy detection system which, when finished, will allow Intel employees and others within corporate IT environments to more easily participate in volunteer computing on their work PCs.

                                                  Our plan is to launch a public beta version on Monday, but I would like to share early access to the application with people in this forum. We hope you\'ll enjoy it; please do let us know what you think.
                                                  http://apps.facebook.com/processors/new.php

                                                  Thanks,

                                                  John Cooney
                                                  Intel Corporation


                                                  As far as existing Boinc users is concerned, all it appears to do is sign you up to the Grid Republic account manager.

                                                  Discussion thread

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                                                  Message 37647 - Posted 6 Aug 2009 12:44:10 UTC

                                                    Last modified: 12 Aug 2009 5:33:44 UTC

                                                    What model names mean

                                                    For example in the case of hadam3p_n8u2_1973_2_006090300_3_1.zip:

                                                    hadam3p = model type
                                                    n8u2 = batch identifier
                                                    1973 = model start year
                                                    _2_ = number of model years to be crunched
                                                    006090300 = model number for the whole workunit
                                                    _3 = iteration number for this particular task
                                                    _1.zip = file number (not really part of the task name)
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                                                    Message 37662 - Posted 8 Aug 2009 14:22:35 UTC

                                                      The online magazine International Science Grid This Week has published an article called How green is my grid? which mentions the role of CPDN.
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                                                      Message 37727 - Posted 13 Aug 2009 20:33:43 UTC

                                                        Last modified: 13 Sep 2009 20:09:43 UTC

                                                        CPDN credits

                                                        Credits for each completed model type have been increased as follows and also retroactively:


                                                        • HadAM3 was 5,184.00, now 5,443.20, +5%
                                                        • HadAM3P was 1,982.64, now 2,081.77, +5%
                                                        • HadCM3 (80 year) was 24,883.20, now 26,127, +5%
                                                        • HadCM3 (160 year) was 49,766.40, now 52,254.72, +5%
                                                        • HadSM3 was 6,805.26, now 7,145.52, +5%
                                                        • HadSM3MH was 9,073.68, now 9,527.36, +5%


                                                        Credits per trickle will of course also increase by 5%.
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                                                        Message 38011 - Posted 19 Sep 2009 19:58:26 UTC

                                                          Carl Christensen of cpdn and QCN (Quake Catcher Network) fame recently gave an informative presentation on Volunteer Computing In The Earth Sciences at the London Institute of Physics. (Link points to a the PowerPoint 2007 presentation)

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                                                          Message 38080 - Posted 10 Oct 2009 0:04:33 UTC

                                                            CPDN applications are 32bit. Some 64bit Linux distributions do not have 32bit compatibility libraries installed by default. In order to run cpdn on a 64bit Linux distribution without errors, you may have to install these compatibility libraries. See this entry in the BOINC wiki for more information.

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                                                            Message 38190 - Posted 27 Oct 2009 17:20:13 UTC

                                                              Last modified: 27 Oct 2009 17:21:29 UTC

                                                              Myles Allen, CPDN\'s chief researcher, has given an update on current experiments to Milo. Here it is:

                                                              Dear all,

                                                              Here is a long-promised update on the experiments we are writing up, running or preparing for release, with apologies for not having kept everyone in the loop. First, a status update on the experiments we have already released, in more-or-less chronological order of release:

                                                              1) The original slab experiment. This continues to provide grist for doctoral theses and detailed studies of how the atmosphere in the Met Office model responds to parameter perturbations. An ongoing debate is whether it is possible to generate the very high responses to doubling carbon dioxide that were reported in Stainforth et al without rendering the climate of the model demonstrably unrealistic. The original “11oC” models were, with the benefit of considerable hindsight and additional scrutiny, relatively unrealistic, but plenty of models have now been found that generate these high sensitivities through different mechanisms (indeed, the main result of that whole experiment was how easy it turns out to be to increase the sensitivity of this model to alarmingly high levels), and we are sending out targeted work-units to explore these in more detail.

                                                              2) The BBC Climate Change Experiment / climateprediction.net transient ensemble. Dave [Frame] has the main results of this experiment now written up, and it’s on my desk for editing (sorry, Dave), so we hope to submit that paper soon. It’s taken a while, because we’ve been having to develop a whole new approach to analyzing coupled model ensembles as we go along. It’ll have been worth the wait. There are still gaps in parameter space that we want to fill in on this experiment, so we are still sending out these coupled work-units as these are identified.

                                                              3) Pardeep Pall’s seasonal attribution experiment is written up and on my desk for editing (sorry, Pardeep).

                                                              4) Neil Massey’s study of extreme weather events has completed its first stage (simulation of 1950-2000), which he is writing up for his thesis, and will shortly be distributing work-units for 2000-2008 – this one feeds directly into Jara Imbers’ experiment (see below).

                                                              5) Kate Ricke’s geo-engineering experiment. This is now written up and submitted for publication, and she has some ideas for follow-up runs.

                                                              6) Falk Niederhorst’s study of climate predictability, based on the slab experiment, is in progress.

                                                              Those are the experiments that we have released through the main climateprediction.net site. We now get onto the experiments we have in beta release or still in preparation.

                                                              7) William Ingram’s transient ensemble for the IPCC Fifth Assessment. Lots of people are contributing to this experiment, but we’ve asked William to coordinate it, so I’m using that title as short-hand. This follows essentially the same format as the BBC Climate Change Experiment but with an updated model, allowing a wider range of perturbations to be explored, updated climate drivers (projected greenhouse gas levels and the like) to be consistent with the drivers used by the major modeling groups in the so-called “CMIP-5” model inter-comparison, and an updated design: we are now running from 1880-2120 split up into 40-year work-units rather than single 1920-2080 160-year work-units, which none of you liked because they took so long to finish. It has been a fair amount of work for Tolu making this possible, but now he has done it, we will be able to target work-units much more flexibly in the future. This is a multi-stage experiment:
                                                              a. Ocean spin-ups, completed last year through the beta site.
                                                              b. Atmosphere spin-ups (40-year work-units to compute the surface fluxes associated with perturbed atmospheres), currently under distribution through the beta site.
                                                              c. Coupled control work-units, which have the same drivers as the spin-ups (a simulation of average climate conditions in the late 19th century), run to check the model’s stability. We aim to start distributing these soon through the beta site.
                                                              d. Coupled transient work-units, which contain the drivers for simulating 1880-2120, which we hope to be distributing by the end of the year (we are checking the driver files very carefully).

                                                              We will, of course, be using results from the existing BBC Climate Change Experiment to target these runs, so we should be able to explore both parameter space and climate driver uncertainty more comprehensively this time. One of the main criticisms often leveled at the CMIP model inter-comparisons is that, to allow all the modeling groups to run the simulations, they only explore a very restricted ranges of scenarios for future emissions. We can explore a much wider range, to put the CMIP-5 results into context.

                                                              8 ) Jara Imbers’ extension of Neil Massey’s experiment. Neil has been running an atmosphere-only model driven with prescribed sea-surface-temperatures which allows higher resolution and shorter work-units. Jara is extending at least a few decades into the future now that we have a range of simulated surface temperature changes from the various coupled experiments (both our own and other peoples) to draw on. This isn’t entirely straightforward, to put it mildly, mostly because of complications with how to make the sea-ice consistent with the surface temperatures (in the coupled models, sea-ice is computed, so while it might be wrong, it is at least self-consistent), but it does provide a way of getting substantially higher atmospheric resolution than is possible in the coupled experiments, which is valuable for impact studies. The software for this experiment already exists (it is identical to Neil’s), but we are working on the driver files.

                                                              9) Hiro Yamazaki’s MILLENNIUM experiment. This follows the same format as the BBC Climate Change Experiment but uses a faster model (with a lower-resolution atmosphere) to simulate climate change over the past millennium. The longer time-scales should provide a much stronger constraint on climate change over the next couple of centuries. Hiro is aiming to get this on general release by the end of the year.

                                                              Finally, our most ambitious experiments under preparation involve the use of the embedded regional model to give substantially enhanced resolution in selected regions for climate impact studies. These will provide a unique way of simulating realistic weather for a wide range of possible climate changes, which will be invaluable for planning adaptation strategies. This is also a perfect application of distributed computing, because of the large ensembles required to generate adequate weather statistics. There are plenty of other groups around the world looking at this problem, but they are all hampered by not being able to run ensembles as large as they would like to, and hence have to resort to complicated statistical post-processing to try and estimate what they would have found if they had been able to. We feel (and plenty of people agree with us) that it is much better as a general rule to provide climate impact assessments with actual climate model output rather than simulated output from a statistical model, because this ensures that the fields provided are internally consistent (that is, satisfy the laws of physics). We are taking two complementary approaches based on the experiments we have already performed, both funded largely by Microsoft Technical Computing:

                                                              10) The coupled regional climate modeling experiment, led by Richard Jones at the Met Office. In this experiment we embed the regional model HadRM3 directly into the coupled atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3L, to simulate regional climate change directly for selected 5-year periods within the coupled transient ensemble. This builds on an 11-member ensemble performed with this set-up for the UKCP09 Climate Projections project. So far, we have been testing a domain located over Southern Africa at 50-km resolution and a domain located over the Pacific Northwest at 25-km resolution. As many of the beta-testers will know, the Pacific Northwest domain has been giving trouble, which may simply result from that specific choice of domain and resolution, in which case fixing it will simply be a (tedious but straightforward) matter of varying the domain until we find something that works. Or it may also indicate a bug, which clearly we would want to track down before releasing this experiment. Given these problems, we have decided to release another experiment in parallel.

                                                              11) The atmosphere-only regional climate modeling experiment. This is a straightforward synthesis of Neil and Jara’s atmosphere-only experiments with the coupled regional modeling experiment, in which we embed the regional model into the higher-resolution HadAM3P model rather than into HadCM3L. The lower contrast in resolution between the driver atmospheric model and the regional model may help make this setup more stable (it has certainly been used very successfully under the Met Office PRECIS project), but time will tell. This is still under preparation, but given it is substantially simpler than the coupled regional modeling experiment, it may end up getting released first. It remains an open question which is the better experimental design: running an atmosphere-only model in so-called “time-slice” mode allows for higher global atmospheric resolution, which improves the simulation of the circulation driving the regional model, while running the regional model directly embedded in the coupled model allows atmosphere-ocean interactions to be simulated more faithfully. When a question is open like this, the best option is to try both approaches which, with your help, we will.

                                                              Once again, none of these experiments would be possible without our participants’ support: thank you all again, and please keep modeling.

                                                              Myles
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                                                              Message 38437 - Posted 1 Dec 2009 23:28:46 UTC

                                                                Last modified: 1 Dec 2009 23:41:22 UTC

                                                                CPDN\'s chief scientist, Myles Allen, was mentioned in this Financial Times article.

                                                                Myles, Dave Frame also of Oxford University and Charles Mason of the University of Wyoming have published an article called The case for mandatory sequestration in Nature.

                                                                You may wish to see how much CO2 we\'ve already emitted on the Oxford University website TrillionthTonne.org.

                                                                David Archer who lectures in climate and global warming at the University of Chicago has posted about his current course on the RealClimate website. We can download and watch the course, called Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast. The lectures are very clear but do include some physics and chemistry. One needs Quick Time player. (Not for members with dialup.)

                                                                Reminder: Using Boinc and participating in projects such as CPDN is voluntary. We must only crunch on our own computers or those whose owners have given us permission!
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                                                                Message 38547 - Posted 18 Dec 2009 10:59:17 UTC

                                                                  Last modified: 18 Dec 2009 11:00:17 UTC

                                                                  Sue Rosier, one of CPDN\'s researchers, has just posted on the independent forum:

                                                                  TODAY at 11:30 a.m. you can watch Myles Allen debating with Darren Johnson on

                                                                  After Copenhagen: Where to now for the climate debate? at

                                                                  http://timesonline.typepad.com/science/2009/12/live-debate-after-copenhagen-where-to-now-for-the-climate-debate.html

                                                                  (And please be aware - Myles has warned he won\'t be talking about the server status!)

                                                                  That\'s in just 30 minutes. Perhaps the conversation will also be watchable later.
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                                                                  Message 38575 - Posted 23 Dec 2009 20:34:27 UTC

                                                                    Last modified: 23 Dec 2009 20:34:58 UTC

                                                                    \"SueR\" wrote:
                                                                    A recent article by Myles Allen on SAFE carbon appeared in the Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung (7 December).

                                                                    An English version of the article, which is entitled \'Beware of what you wish for in Copenhagen\', can be found here:

                                                                    http://climateprediction.net/content/public-presentations-talks-and-posters

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                                                                    Message 38705 - Posted 13 Jan 2010 23:27:11 UTC

                                                                      Last modified: 13 Jan 2010 23:28:40 UTC

                                                                      Reports are starting to appear about the latest version of Norton AV, Sonar, not being happy with cpdn programs.
                                                                      This is just the latest episode in a long saga of AV programs wrongly detecting a virus.

                                                                      And the cure is the same as before:
                                                                      1) Use the menu option to prevent the AV from scanning any of the BOINC folders.
                                                                      2) Use a different AV. Or at least until Norton has it\'s next update. (Which may or may not fix the problem, and may or may not cause a different one. :( )

                                                                      ****************************

                                                                      Relevant threads on past problems, in the README files: Crashes and other problems. (The middle of the first section.)

                                                                      Mentions by crunchers of the latest problem:
                                                                      Our alternate board
                                                                      This board
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                                                                      Message 38919 - Posted 12 Feb 2010 14:00:55 UTC

                                                                        Several publications by the ClimatePrediction researchers have been added to the Publications page.

                                                                        Knutti, R., G.A. Meehl, M.R. Allen and D. A. Stainforth, 2006: Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature, Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4224-4233. A 10-page pdf.

                                                                        Knutti, R., S.Krähenmann, D. J. Frame and M. R. Allen, 2008: Comment on \'Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth\'s climate system\' by S. E. Schwartz, JGR, 113, D15103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009473. A 6-page pdf.

                                                                        Sanderson, B., R. Knutti, T. Aina, C. Christensen, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, W. J. Ingram, C. Piani, D. A. Stainforth, D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen, 2008: Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid scale processes, Journal of Climate, 21, 2384-2400. A 17-page pdf.

                                                                        H. Fowler, D. Cooley, S. Sain and M. Thurston: Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment, 2010, Extremes DOI 10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y.
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                                                                        Message 39094 - Posted 1 Mar 2010 3:00:42 UTC

                                                                          The anti-virus program AVG V9 is causing problems with uploads.

                                                                          Sticky here
                                                                          Thread for discussion here


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                                                                          Message 39316 - Posted 24 Mar 2010 0:27:05 UTC

                                                                            Last modified: 23 Sep 2010 22:19:36 UTC

                                                                            A few Millennium models have been added to those available for selection.

                                                                            These are called FAMOUS, after the program used to run them.
                                                                            From our Experiments page: Millennium experiment with FAMOUS

                                                                            PS
                                                                            I\'ve been running test models for so long that I forget to say:

                                                                            They run FAST. Once you get some trickles sent back, have a look at it. The red graph along the top shows the various volcano eruptions.
                                                                            Also have a look at the various plots on your computer, especially in Wall Map view.
                                                                            The weather just flys across.

                                                                            No doubt a sticky will be made about them, once what should go into it is thought out.

                                                                            Update: A bit disappointing for some perhaps, but older computers without SSE2 will crash these models as soon as they start.

                                                                            Update 2: A newer release of the FAMOUS models doesn't have the SSE2 limitation. If SSE2 isn't available, they now drop back to running without it.
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                                                                            Message 39328 - Posted 24 Mar 2010 12:13:50 UTC

                                                                              Last modified: 26 Mar 2010 13:14:54 UTC

                                                                              FAMOUS is available for Windows, Mac and Linux: here is the Applications page. You can see the number of tasks available for download on the Server status page.

                                                                              Please note that, as Geophi has posted here, FAMOUS cannot run on computers without SSE2 or SSE3 processor capability. This also applies to HadAM3P as Geophi explained here. You can check your processor features about 8 lines from the top of the computer\'s Boinc manager messages.

                                                                              For computers that cannot run FAMOUS or HadAM3P you should select only HadSM.
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                                                                              Message 39404 - Posted 29 Mar 2010 0:13:05 UTC

                                                                                Last modified: 29 Mar 2010 0:47:50 UTC

                                                                                Millennium Project FAMOUS models update

                                                                                The new FAMOUS models will contribute to the European multidisciplinary experiment involving 16 countries and many universities. The Millennium website explains how the climate of the last millennium will be analysed using climate models and proxy data. The CPDN modelling contribution is described here and its lead researcher is Dr Hiro Yamazaki at Oxford University.

                                                                                The very long FAMOUS models are distributed in 200-year segments each of which at the end generates a restart dump from which the next 200-year period can begin. They are available on all platforms. At the moment the models run very fast, taking fewer than 130 hours on a C2D 6600. A slower version is, however, being beta-tested in order to improve model stability.

                                                                                A small proportion of these models crash and should not be restored from backup. They would fail again at the same point.

                                                                                In your account you can look at your computers and their tasks. When a task has completed, successfully or not, on its web page you can click on stderr out to see the Boinc messages. Typical messages that indicate a crash was caused by model (or compilation) instability include:

                                                                                INVALID THETA DETECTED
                                                                                NEGATIVE PRESSURE VALUE CREATED
                                                                                Signal 11 received, exiting...


                                                                                and in Linux, FAMOUS v.6.01, some less frequent messages:
                                                                                SIGSEGV: segmentation violation
                                                                                Signal 2 received, exiting...
                                                                                Signal 15 received, exiting...


                                                                                These error messages do not indicate that your computer is unstable.

                                                                                As well as the globe graphics, Tolu is developing sophisticated graphs which will later become available on models\' web pages.

                                                                                If you wish to try FAMOUS you can select it in the ClimatePrediction section of your CPDN account.

                                                                                Please subscribe to this News thread which is where further detailed announcements will be posted.

                                                                                Reminder: FAMOUS can only run on computers with SSE2 capability. SSE is not sufficient. You can check whether your processor has SSE2 by looking at your Boinc manager messages about 8 lines from the top. This also applies to HadAM3P models. Computers without SSE2 should select HadSM models.
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                                                                                Message 39430 - Posted 31 Mar 2010 11:46:12 UTC

                                                                                  Last modified: 31 Mar 2010 11:48:20 UTC

                                                                                  Millennium Project FAMOUS update

                                                                                  The following warning about this early stage of the FAMOUS experiment has just been added to the Millennium experiment with FAMOUS page:

                                                                                  The Millennium/Famous experiment uses a radically new way to run perturbed atmosphere-ocean coupled models without dynamic flux adjustments. Therefore, we expect many models to run away quickly from realistic climatic conditions, especially when we perturbed the internal parameters of the model. The main test of such models are performed for the \"spin-up\" period labelled as 599-799 AD. For this period, we don\'t use time-evolving external forcing data. We simply keep them constant to see how each model adjusts to its own new equilibrium. However, since some of our perturbations are fairly strong, many models will simply run away!

                                                                                  Also, we use several extreme forcing scenarios. For example, the largest volcanic eruptions in the last Millennium are estimated to be several times larger than the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Moreover, to cover the full range of uncertainty in the historical volcanic eruption data, we even try the case with 3 times the best estimate of volcanic forcing.

                                                                                  Once we find a variety of not-outrageous models, we will only use them to run more realistic simulations from 800 AD towards near future. Such runs still include the setup with the extreme scenarios, and some of the models that survived the spin-up period will probably go wild. We also noticed that the current Famous model is perhaps somewhat less stable than other models we have been using. In any event, we compare model\'s outputs with observational data and evaluate the goodness of each model run. The goodness measure will be used to illustrate the range of plausible future.

                                                                                  ____________
                                                                                  "The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children." - Dietrich Bonhoeffer

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                                                                                  Message 39742 - Posted 19 May 2010 7:47:19 UTC

                                                                                    Last modified: 19 May 2010 7:48:06 UTC

                                                                                    On the science side, reasearch obviously continues.

                                                                                    There is a further paper on the topic of calculating Jeffreys\' Priors for climate models recently made available on Arxiv.

                                                                                    Objective Probabilistic Forecasts of Future Climate Based on Jeffreys’ Prior: the Case of Correlated Observables
                                                                                    Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen
                                                                                    http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1005/1005.2354v1.pdf

                                                                                    The abstract of this and the earlier paper on which this is expanding are quoted below. The papers linked particularly the recent one may well be considered rather technical rather than interesting bedtime reading.


                                                                                    To attempt an introduction to what these papers are about:

                                                                                    A 2005 paper:
                                                                                    Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions
                                                                                    http://climateprediction.net/science/pubs/2004GL022241.pdf

                                                                                    discussed the problem of how producing a probability from an ensembles of models is complicated by the way parameter space is sampled. Spacing the samples equally distanced in climate sensitivity will yield different probablities than if the samples are equally distanced apart in another plausible way such as feedback (proportional to 1/sensitivity).

                                                                                    The key feature of a Jeffreys_prior is that it is invariant under such reparameterizations.


                                                                                    Abstracts

                                                                                    To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior.
                                                                                    We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys’ Prior. In previous work we
                                                                                    have derived expressions for the Jeffreys’ Prior for the case in which the observations are independent
                                                                                    and normally distributed. These expressions make the calculation of the prior much simpler than
                                                                                    evaluation directly from the definition. In this paper, we now relax the independence assumption and
                                                                                    derive expressions for the Jeffreys’ Prior for the case in which the observations are distributed with
                                                                                    a multivariate normal distribution with constant covariances. Again, these expressions simplify the
                                                                                    calculation of the prior: in this case they reduce it to the calculation of the differences between the
                                                                                    ensemble means of climate model ensembles based on different parameter settings. These calculations
                                                                                    are simple enough to be applied to even the most complex climate models.

                                                                                    The previous work was

                                                                                    A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys\' Prior
                                                                                    http://arxiv.org/abs/0908.4207
                                                                                    Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen

                                                                                    We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys’ priors in the construction of numerical model
                                                                                    based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective.
                                                                                    Hitherto, this has been considered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that
                                                                                    we believe makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for various simple cases.


                                                                                    If you want to discuss these Jeffreys\' priors papers, can I suggest this thread or create one on this board.
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                                                                                    Message 39921 - Posted 11 Jun 2010 18:29:10 UTC

                                                                                      Last modified: 11 Jul 2010 9:19:06 UTC

                                                                                      FAMOUS v.6.10 MILLENNIUM models


                                                                                      • Available on all platforms.
                                                                                      • You may need to select it in the climateprediction.net preferences of your account.
                                                                                      • FAMOUS takes about 9 days crunching 24/7 on a fairly fast computer.
                                                                                      • 200 model years.
                                                                                      • These 200-year segments form part of models lasting 1600 years. After completion the segments are stitched together.
                                                                                      • The first 200 years, 599 - 799, are a spinup or settling-down period which allows climatic conditions to stabilise.
                                                                                      • The deadline for these models is three months which is much shorter than for other model types. This is because CPDN needs the results back as quickly as possible to stitch the segments together.
                                                                                      • Files are uploaded every five model years ie 20 files in total.
                                                                                      • Trickles are uploaded every model year ie 200 trickles.
                                                                                      • As v.6.10 processes more slowly than the previous CPDN version, credits have been increased to maintain parity with other CPDN models. (If you crunched the earlier version models you will also receive the increased credits for them.)
                                                                                      • At the moment CPDN FAMOUS displays the traditional graphics as for other model types. New graphics are being developed in conjunction with Sony Labs in Paris but are still being beta-tested. They will be released on CPDN in a future FAMOUS version.
                                                                                      • Each FAMOUS task web page, reached from our computer's task list in our account, displays new interactive graphs. They include clickable red dots for volcanic eruptions. Here is a historical list of Large Volcanic Eruptions.
                                                                                        The graphs display in most browsers but not in Internet Explorer 7 (Windows). You can upgrade to IE 8 at no cost. If you have XP please upgrade to IE 8 in case you are not able to when Windows support for XP stops soon.
                                                                                      • Some FAMOUS models crash, typically with exit code 22 and messages including 'INVALID THETA' or 'NEGATIVE PRESSURE', because of instabilities that develop with some combinations of parameter values. Please do not restore backups of models and rerun them after model instability crashes. On the same platform with the same operating system the models would crash again at the same point. (Reminder: if your models crash with other exit codes eg -186 or -226 you should post on the forum for advice.)
                                                                                      • If your multicore computer is also running other model types you may still wish to make backups to help ensure completion of the other models.
                                                                                      • FAMOUS does not use enormous amounts of memory. Most multicore computers should be able to load all cores with FAMOUS and run them simultaneously. (Reminder: on a multicore computer with 4 or more cores don't fully load with HadAM3P as they will slow each other down, in a few cases disastrously.)
                                                                                      • A future FAMOUS version is expected to be hyperthreaded.
                                                                                      • You can read about the Millennium Experiment led by Dr Hiro Yamazaki at Oxford University here. Here is the website of The Millennium Project which is pan-European and multidisciplinary.


                                                                                      Thank you to all members who are helping to advance this large research project.

                                                                                      Re-edit: As Geophi has said in his post below, the new CPDN version of FAMOUS can now run on computers without SSE2 or SSE3 processor capability, ie older processors.
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                                                                                      Message 39976 - Posted 19 Jun 2010 22:28:57 UTC

                                                                                        Die CPDN-BOINC-Seiten (z.B. auch unsere Teilnehmer-Konten-Details) können auch in anderen Sprachen als nur Englisch angezeigt werden.

                                                                                        Dafür wurde jetzt ein Link zur Sprachauswahl-Seite zum blauen Menue (links) der BOINC-Seiten hinzugefügt.

                                                                                        Dieser Link führt direkt zur Sprachauswahl (nicht alle wählbaren Übersetzungen sind gleichermassen vollständig).


                                                                                        Wichtig : Nachdem bei CPDN das letzte BOINC-Update durchgeführt wurde, gab es ziemlich heftige Probleme mit der deutschen Übersetzung, speziell in den Projekteinstellungen, der zweite Menuepunkt lautete fälschlich "GPU verwenden", das wurde jetzt korrigiert zu "CPU verwenden". Diejenigen von Euch, die dort zwischenzeitlich ein "Nein" eingestellt haben, müssten es wahrscheinlich wieder auf "Ja" ändern, damit sie wieder Arbeit bekommen.


                                                                                        Die Ãœbersetzungsfehler waren Folge eines Problems mit der Sprachdatei beim BOINC-Update.

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                                                                                        Message 39977 - Posted 19 Jun 2010 22:35:17 UTC

                                                                                          We can view our CPDN account details in some other languages instead of English.

                                                                                          There is now a link to the language selection page in the blue menu.

                                                                                          This is the selection. Some translations are more complete than others.


                                                                                          When CPDN upgraded its version of Boinc at the beginning of June there was a serious error in the German translation of the second item in the ClimatePrediction preferences of our accounts. It said GPU. Now it correctly says Use CPU. If you edited this second preference and answered No, your computer(s) cannot download new work for CPDN. Some German-speaking members may need to edit this answer which must say Yes.

                                                                                          The error in the translation happened because of an accident with the file.

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                                                                                          Message 39989 - Posted 21 Jun 2010 17:08:04 UTC

                                                                                            CPDN with Windows and Boinc service (protected) installation

                                                                                            If your computer has


                                                                                            • Windows and

                                                                                            • a Boinc version lower than 6.10.49 and

                                                                                            • a Boinc service (protected) installation



                                                                                            it is probably crashing its climate models of every type with the -226 exit code. Members with these computers should upgrade their Boinc version as this problem has been fixed. After an upgrade your models should process successfully. Download your upgrade from Boinc.

                                                                                            Members with Linux and Mac (or Windows with a non-service (screensaver) installation) are not affected.
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                                                                                            Message 39993 - Posted 22 Jun 2010 17:31:56 UTC

                                                                                              FAMOUS v6.11 MILLENNIUM models

                                                                                              An updated version of the FAMOUS application was released yesterday. The only change from v6.10 is the addition of the enhanced graphics developed in conjunction with Sony Labs in Paris. The model processing is unchanged and we would encourage users to continue running any v6.10 tasks to completion.

                                                                                              Please note that a problem with the mirroring of the application files was causing a third of download attempts for the new version to fail. This has now been fixed. Apologies to those who were affected.
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                                                                                              Message 40053 - Posted 29 Jun 2010 17:11:42 UTC

                                                                                                There are two CPDN news announcements, which subscribers to the RSS feed may already have seen:

                                                                                                Myles Allen wins the Appleton Medal

                                                                                                Retirement of HadSM3 and HadAM3P models

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                                                                                                Message 40197 - Posted 21 Jul 2010 10:02:15 UTC

                                                                                                  Last modified: 29 Jul 2010 13:15:02 UTC

                                                                                                  CPDN logo mugs

                                                                                                  You may have seen from the news on the climateprediction.net index page that climateprediction.net logo + globe mugs are now available from the CafePress shop. I have one and like it. The cost of shipping is the same whether one orders one mug or more. Each purchase will provide US$2 profit towards CPDN's operating costs.


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                                                                                                  Message 40220 - Posted 23 Jul 2010 12:04:07 UTC

                                                                                                    Geoengineering experiment

                                                                                                    Many members ran HadCM models for the CPDN Geoengineering experiment.

                                                                                                    Nature has published a letter (short article) about the experiment's results. The abstract is here: Regional climate response to solar-radiation management by Katharine Ricke and M. Granger Morgan of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and Myles Allen of CPDN at the University of Oxford. The potential political implications of their findings are significant.

                                                                                                    There is a forum thread about this publication with further links here.
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                                                                                                    Message 40261 - Posted 28 Jul 2010 21:55:37 UTC

                                                                                                      Last modified: 29 Jul 2010 13:21:02 UTC

                                                                                                      Members who ran HadSM models while they were available may be interested to read Iain Inglis's final analysis of the geographical distribution of 'iceworlds' here.

                                                                                                      Reminder: If you are still running a HadSM or HadSMMH model, please look at its graphics every two or three days if possible to check that its globe shows all the colours. A single colour for the whole globe means that an iceworld has developed and the model should be aborted.
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                                                                                                      Message 40299 - Posted 3 Aug 2010 21:05:27 UTC

                                                                                                        FAMOUS_s3 models

                                                                                                        A batch of 599-799 FAMOUS models has been released with s3 in their names. They are for a specific study. The greenhouse gas forcing (effect on the climate) is kept constant for the first 30 years during which the model graphs should only show small fluctuations. In 630AD the greenhouse gases (ghg) are halved in one step; the parameter says ghg_stp_half. Here is one such model.

                                                                                                        Or the ghg value is doubled in one step. The parameter says ghg_stp_dble. Look at one model's graph.

                                                                                                        These models invent hypothetical changes to study the effects. They do not simulate a real sudden climate change in the year 630.

                                                                                                        The FAMOUS graphs were developed at Sony CSL in Paris by Peter Hanappe, Anthony Beurive who is an open source developer and Laurent Saifre, a student who made the initial version of advected texture cloud graphics. As usual, Tolu makes them run on all our home computers. Thank you to all these developers.

                                                                                                        Reminder: You can see your own tasks in your account. Click on the Tasks link to see your models.
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                                                                                                        Message 40618 - Posted 7 Sep 2010 17:51:49 UTC

                                                                                                          Tolu is leaving CPDN for another post. Hiro's announcement here:
                                                                                                          http://climateprediction.net/board/viewtopic.php?p=89959#p89959
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                                                                                                          Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

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                                                                                                          Message 40661 - Posted 12 Sep 2010 15:23:13 UTC

                                                                                                            HadAM3P regional models

                                                                                                            There is now an explanation of the Regional Experiment in the Experiments section of the ClimatePrediction website. You can read about how a small part of the Earth is modelled at higher resolution than CPDN has ever achieved before while incorporating global data. There are three different groups of researchers for the Pacific North West, Europe and Southern Africa models. In the Climateprediction preferences in your account you can if you wish select one or more of these regions. Read more here.

                                                                                                            Reminder: HadAM3P models are memory-intensive. If a multicore computer runs a full load of them simultaneously they will probably slow each other down. Try to run some FAMOUS alongside them.
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                                                                                                            Message 40897 - Posted 22 Oct 2010 11:30:01 UTC

                                                                                                              CPDN main project

                                                                                                              CPDN Geoengineering Experiment

                                                                                                              Many of us ran 80-year 2000 - 2080 HadCM3L models for the Geoengineering Experiment which is a joint project for Oxford University and Carnegie-Mellon University in the US. Kate Ricke and Daniel Rowlands now need more of these models for an extension to this experiment, described in an extra paragraph which has been added at the end of the Geoengineering Experiment page. Milo posted a link to a first publication about this experiment here.

                                                                                                              A small number of these HadCM models have already been released on CPDN and if they run well more will follow. These are long models. You can select or deselect them by editing the climateprediction.net preferences in your account. HadSM is fairly long, though not as long as HadCM3L. If you prefer shorter models select HadAM3P EUR, SAF or EUR (though none are available at the moment) and FAMOUS.

                                                                                                              Check the Server status page for current model availability.
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                                                                                                              Message 41048 - Posted 15 Nov 2010 17:04:41 UTC

                                                                                                                CPDN main project

                                                                                                                Milo has configured the server to prevent creation or modification of profiles unless you have a recent average credit of at least 5. This has been done to stop a bot which has been automatically creating accounts with spam profiles.
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                                                                                                                Message 41131 - Posted 22 Nov 2010 7:29:33 UTC

                                                                                                                  Last modified: 22 Nov 2010 13:25:57 UTC

                                                                                                                  Apologies for not posting an announcement about this earlier on this forum.

                                                                                                                  WeatherAtHome

                                                                                                                  CPDN launched this initiative with the three regional models on 17 November. Read about it on the Guardian website here where CPDN researcher Sue Rosier explains how these models can be used to show extreme weather events in much greater detail than with global models.

                                                                                                                  You can watch a short video of Sue describing the WeatherAtHome initiative here. There is also a description of WeatherAtHome on the CPDN website where you will see that research groups from three countries will be involved in analysing the regional model results.

                                                                                                                  WeatherAtHome is not a new Boinc project. It is an initiative within the existing CPDN project. It is aimed only at new members who want to run the regional models.

                                                                                                                  What does WeatherAtHome consist of for its new crunchers?

                                                                                                                  1. It has a special registration page. This enables people to choose the regional model type they want before they join the project. Normally when one joins a Boinc project the first task one receives is sent at random from all the types available on the project server.

                                                                                                                  Existing members do not need to do this. We can select and change the model types we want by editing the climateprediction.net Preferences in our account. A link to our account is in the blue menu on the left side of this page. We can see which model types are currently available for our computer by looking at the links to the Server Status page and the Applications page.

                                                                                                                  2. New members who join CPDN through the WeatherAtHome registration page will receive a Boinc version pre-configured differently from usual. CPU usage is set at 60%, not the usual 100%. This is to protect computers that have limited memory/RAM because the regional models are memory-intensive. It also protects laptops from overheating.

                                                                                                                  Existing members do not need this specially-configured version of Boinc. In our CPDN account in the Computing Preferences we can change the CPU usage for all our computers on all projects. If we want to vary the CPU usage for an individual computer we can open its Boinc manager and in the Advanced menu > Preferences > Processor usage we can change the settings.

                                                                                                                  Edit: Milo, our programmer, has told me that this 60% CPU usage preconfiguration for WeatherAtHome members did not work. It is set as 100% as the default for everyone. If you have a laptop we advise you to reduce this 100% value either in the Boinc manager Advanced menu > Preferences > Processor usage, or in the Computing Preferences in your account. And when using a laptop always raise its little feet to increase air flow and cooling.

                                                                                                                  3. At the moment WeatherAtHome members can only receive the regional models for Windows. Versions for Linux and Mac may be made available later.

                                                                                                                  Existing CPDN members do not need this Windows restriction. Although the regional models are only available for CPDN members with Windows at the moment, members with Linux or Mac can run HadCM (which is much longer) for the Geoengineering experiment or FAMOUS for the Millennium experiment.

                                                                                                                  4. WeatherAtHome members can of course also change the settings in their accounts, for example for CPU usage or to select different model types.

                                                                                                                  Welcome to all the new WeatherAtHome members.

                                                                                                                  Existing members should not rejoin CPDN through WeatherAtHome. Please complete all your current models which will all be used.
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                                                                                                                  Message 41152 - Posted 24 Nov 2010 12:35:51 UTC

                                                                                                                    Last modified: 24 Nov 2010 12:43:38 UTC

                                                                                                                    CPDN WeatherAtHome HadAM3P Regional Models

                                                                                                                    This is an updated version of the post made when the HadAM3P regional models were released on CPDN 3 months ago to clarify the current lack of applications for Linux and Mac and the name change for the Western United States region (from Pacific North West).

                                                                                                                    These models all consist of a HadAM3P global model coupled with a higher resolution regional model and run for one model year. The regions covered are Europe, Western US and Southern Africa.


                                                                                                                    • HadAM3P regional models are currently only available for Windows. We are hoping to make them available for Linux and Mac again at some point in the future.

                                                                                                                    • If you joined the project via the WeatherAtHome registration page you will already have set your model type preference. Otherwise you may need to select the model types you wish to run in your project preferences (which now includes a map to allow the selection of a location within each region that will be monitored on task pages).

                                                                                                                    • The downloads for these models are large:

                                                                                                                      • 103.5MB of region independent data files. These will only be downloaded once.
                                                                                                                      • 12.4MB of application version stamped files. These will only be downloaded once but will have to be replaced if a new version is released.
                                                                                                                      • 5.5MB of region dependent data files. These will only be downloaded once for each region.
                                                                                                                      • 11.7MB of date dependent data files. These will have to be downloaded when you run a model for a date range you haven't already run.


                                                                                                                    • These models have a much higher memory requirement than FAMOUS (around 250MB compared to 30MB) and the findings in beta testing suggest that they don't scale up very well on multi-core systems (a slow down of between 7 and 10% when 2 tasks are run in parallel on a 2 or 4 core system with 2GB of memory). This slow down might not be as apparent on systems with more memory.

                                                                                                                    • The regional models cover different sized areas and have different resolutions. They return a trickle and upload a file at the end of each month and upload a further file on completion.

                                                                                                                    • European region

                                                                                                                      • Takes about 4 days of 24/7 crunching on a 2.4GHz computer.
                                                                                                                      • Monthly upload files are about 13MB and the final upload is about 35MB.
                                                                                                                      • 2,386.39 credits for a completed task.


                                                                                                                    • Western US region

                                                                                                                      • Takes about 5 days of 24/7 crunching on a 2.4GHz computer.
                                                                                                                      • Monthly upload files are about 6MB and the final upload is about 27MB.
                                                                                                                      • 3,005.88 credits for a completed task.


                                                                                                                    • Southern African region

                                                                                                                      • Also takes about 4 days of 24/7 crunching on a 2.4GHz computer, but slightly faster than Europe.
                                                                                                                      • Monthly upload files are about 3.5MB and the final upload is about 32MB.
                                                                                                                      • 2,244.09 credits for a completed task.



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                                                                                                                    Message 41191 - Posted 30 Nov 2010 15:46:50 UTC

                                                                                                                      Last modified: 30 Nov 2010 15:48:34 UTC

                                                                                                                      Neil Massey, who is one of the CPDN researchers, has said in the Independent Forum News:

                                                                                                                      Milo's last day

                                                                                                                      Today is Milo Thurston's last day on climateprediction.net. On behalf of the team I'd like to thank him for all his hard work over the past 4 years and for keeping the project infrastructure running smoothly. We wish him well for his new project, which I'm sure Milo would be happy to let you know about.

                                                                                                                      Thanks again, Neil and the CPDN team.

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                                                                                                                      Message 41207 - Posted 2 Dec 2010 23:38:54 UTC

                                                                                                                        Last modified: 2 Dec 2010 23:39:44 UTC

                                                                                                                        Yesterday Sue Rosier, one of the CPDN researchers, posted in the News thread of the independent forum:

                                                                                                                        Well as you are no doubt aware, today is the 1st of December, which also means it is CPDN's first day without either Tolu or Milo, so I thought I might take a moment to send a bit of an update about recent happenings at CPDN.

                                                                                                                        First, to re-iterate Neil's message of yesterday, I'd like to add my huge thanks to Milo for doing such a fantastic job over the last four years, looking after the CPDN database and generally ensuring the smooth-running of the project. He will be much missed. We all wish him every success in his new venture.

                                                                                                                        We are also of course missing the recently departed Tolu and hoping that he is having fun and being successful in his new role. Big thanks also to Tolu for his many years of skilful and dedicated service to CPDN.

                                                                                                                        It is strange to think of the project without either Milo or Tolu but we hope soon to be welcoming new staff to take their places.

                                                                                                                        We recently welcomed Cameron Rye as postdoctoral staff on the project. He joins us from Cambridge, where he has just completed his PhD at the Scott Polar Research Institute, modelling glacier mass balance in Svalbard. Cameron will be working on the HYDRA project with William and Myles, investigating the moisture budget in the CPDN ensembles, including the results from the new regional model experiments. He will also probably be performing some extra simulations of his own to accompany these studies. Cameron has done a sterling job getting up to speed very quickly with many aspects of CPDN and we look forward to working further with him.

                                                                                                                        Jara Imbers Quintana also joined the team relatively recently and she likewise has coped tremendously with the steep learning curve of CPDN, including communicating with the media. A native Spanish speaker, Jara recently spoke live to Colombian breakfast radio about the launch of the “weatherathome” regional modelling experiment and is booked to provide another interview for a Latin American TV channel this week. Jara has a Masters degree and PhD in Theoretical Physics and works some of the time at the Mathematical Institute here in Oxford, but most of the time in AOPP, where she is currently involved in developing a new algorithm for the representation of sea ice in upcoming CPDN experiments.

                                                                                                                        If you followed the recent launch of the “weatherathome” regional modelling experiment you may now be aware of the climateeducation.net initiative. This is what has kept me very busy over the last many months. In partnership with the Met Office and Oxford University's Department for Continuing Education we are developing two online courses (or “information packs”) which aim to communicate the basics of climate science and modelling, and how to go about interpreting the results of climate modelling experiments. The first course is aimed at the general public, whilst the second more at those who wish, or need, to use a regional climate model in their work (e.g. scientists, climate impacts/adaptation specialists, policy-makers etc). Among other things, the first course presents some of the results from the CPDN transient experiment, for which big thanks are due to you, the participants, for the crunching and Dan Rowlands, CPDN graduate student, for the data processing. The first course is due to launch the week after next and if you are interested, you can register at http://climateeducation.net.

                                                                                                                        As ever, there is plenty more going on at CPDN and I aim to keep you as up to date as possible via this page.

                                                                                                                        Best wishes,
                                                                                                                        Sue

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                                                                                                                        Message 41655 - Posted 21 Feb 2011 16:38:32 UTC

                                                                                                                          Here's a message from Pardeep:

                                                                                                                          -----
                                                                                                                          Dear Seasonal Attribution Project participants,
                                                                                                                          The results of our work on attribution of the UK autumn 2000 floods have finally been published (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7334/full/nature09762.html), and have generated a fair amount of media interest!
                                                                                                                          I just wanted to say one final big thank you to all the participants who crunched simulations for us – we couldn’t have done the study without you! And I similarly want to say thanks for the enjoyable discussions I had back on the project’s old message boards.
                                                                                                                          It's sure taken a while to get this work finished, but now it’s great to see the follow-up weatherathome.net project is well underway, and I hope we’ll see more interesting results come out of that.
                                                                                                                          Happy crunching,
                                                                                                                          Pardeep

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                                                                                                                          Message 41666 - Posted 25 Feb 2011 16:03:20 UTC

                                                                                                                            CPDN main project - important database maintenance on Monday 28 February 2011

                                                                                                                            The CPDN main project database will offline on Monday in order to facilitate some much-needed maintenance.

                                                                                                                            During the maintenance period the BOINC forums will be inaccessible, it will not be possible to create accounts or attach new computers to the project and all scheduler requests will fail (this includes uploading trickles, reporting completed tasks and requesting new work). Upload of result files will be unaffected.

                                                                                                                            The aim is to reduce the time taken for the database backup which is thought to be the current cause both of the BOINC board and scheduler being unavailable for long periods and the slow connections from clients when they are.

                                                                                                                            The work will take many hours because it involves running the tortuously slow backup script and then archiving old data in the existing (huge) tables.

                                                                                                                            The database will certainly be offline all of Monday and possibly longer. Updates on the progress will be posted in the News thread on the phpBB forum.

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                                                                                                                            Message 41696 - Posted 5 Mar 2011 0:55:17 UTC

                                                                                                                              CPDN main project

                                                                                                                              We are now into the final stages of the database maintenance.

                                                                                                                              Although the BOINC message board is back online the scheduler is still disabled. This means it is still not possible to create accounts or attach new computers to the project and all scheduler requests will continue to fail (this includes uploading trickles, reporting completed tasks and requesting new work).

                                                                                                                              Upload of most result files is possible, but the final upload file generated by HadAM3P regional tasks (*_13.zip) can't be uploaded at the moment. These files contain the restart dumps required to generate follow-up tasks and are sent to climateapps1.oucs.ox.ac.uk.

                                                                                                                              By keeping these features disabled the project team can make a direct comparison between the credits calculated before the old database was archived and those calculated using the optimised database.

                                                                                                                              The project will not be brought fully back to service until the project team are confident that the credit script is working correctly.

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                                                                                                                              Message 41734 - Posted 8 Mar 2011 12:55:41 UTC

                                                                                                                                CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                The scheduler has been restarted and it is now possible to upload trickles, report completed tasks, request new work, create new accounts and attach new computers.

                                                                                                                                It is still not possible to upload the final file generated by HadAM3P regional tasks (*_13.zip) as climateapps1.oucs.ox.ac.uk is currently out of disk space. Jonathan is working to make more space available.

                                                                                                                                A significant number of users are currently affected by credit anomalies, mostly with credits below the level calculated before the database maintenance started. We've been here after previous major periods of database maintenance. As before these credit problems will be resolved as a background task by the project team.

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                                                                                                                                Message 41750 - Posted 9 Mar 2011 11:31:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                  CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                  We are fairly sure that the problem which resulted in 5,429 CPDN users losing varying amounts of credit after the database work has been identified. Jonathan is working to fix this.

                                                                                                                                  Jonathan and Milo are still working to make more space available on climateapps1 to allow completion of stalled uploads of HadAM3P regional restart dumps (the *_13.zip files).

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                                                                                                                                  Message 41774 - Posted 11 Mar 2011 10:31:45 UTC

                                                                                                                                    CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                    Yesterday a bug was found in the most recent batch of regional EU models. An accidental mistake was causing all new models of this type to fail during download with a checksum error. PNW and SAF models are not affected.

                                                                                                                                    EU models have been deprecated (removed) from the server. More will be created. Until they become available you may need to add PNW and SAF to your selected models in your account.

                                                                                                                                    For the time being, all regional model types are only available for computers with Windows. As soon as a version for Linux and Mac becomes available we will announce it here in this thread.

                                                                                                                                    Here is the Server Status page.
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                                                                                                                                    Message 41794 - Posted 13 Mar 2011 2:29:26 UTC

                                                                                                                                      It seems that climateapps1.oucs.ox.ac.uk is out of disk space again. Must have been a LOT of "13 zips" waiting.
                                                                                                                                      Other upload servers may also be getting close.

                                                                                                                                      Monday morning, UK time, is the earliest that this will start to get fixed.

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                                                                                                                                      Message 41805 - Posted 15 Mar 2011 20:18:03 UTC

                                                                                                                                        climateapps1 is currently accepting data, but may be under stress from large amounts of incoming data.


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                                                                                                                                        Message 41856 - Posted 23 Mar 2011 13:51:22 UTC

                                                                                                                                          Last modified: 23 Mar 2011 19:23:55 UTC

                                                                                                                                          The weatherathome applications (HADAM3P regional - EU/PNW/SAF) are now available on all platforms - i.e. Windows, Mac and Linux.

                                                                                                                                          See here.

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                                                                                                                                          Message 41860 - Posted 23 Mar 2011 19:20:06 UTC

                                                                                                                                            Last modified: 23 Mar 2011 19:25:18 UTC

                                                                                                                                            CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                            It appears that the v6.09 HadAM3P regional model graphics application is missing from the download mirror servers (definitely for Windows and Linux, probably for Mac too).

                                                                                                                                            This means that all downloads of Weather at Home tasks will fail until the project team can resolve the problem.

                                                                                                                                            In the meantime it appears that an extension of the HadCM3 Coupled Model Experiment Optimised File I/O geo-engineering experiment has been released for all platforms.

                                                                                                                                            If you are happy to run these longer experiments you will have to modify your project preferences to restrict your application selection to only "UK Met Office HadCM3 Coupled Model Experiment" (the HadAM3P regional tasks seem to have a higher priority and your daily quota will be used up failing to download them). Otherwise you are advised set CPDN to request no new work until the missing file has been added to the download mirror servers.

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                                                                                                                                            Message 42046 - Posted 27 Apr 2011 13:51:51 UTC

                                                                                                                                              Last modified: 27 Apr 2011 13:54:45 UTC

                                                                                                                                              CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                              Some users may have spotted that HadAM3P regional tasks were being shown with a status of "Didn't need". The text has been changed to "No Resubmission" to avoid any confusion and prevent users from thinking they ought to abort tasks which are definitely still required.

                                                                                                                                              Jonathan has posted a full explanation here.

                                                                                                                                              The resubmission job for HadAM3P EU and SAF workunits is currently suspended but the project team hope they to resume it either today or tomorrow and start generating new tasks for those applications.

                                                                                                                                              In the meantime, a new batch of tasks for the HadCM3N (RAPIT) experiment was generated yesterday. This is a second set of control work units with a known perturbation added (dtheta=1). The project scientists will soon be making a post to explain the purpose of this batch.

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                                                                                                                                              Message 42047 - Posted 27 Apr 2011 15:21:52 UTC - in response to Message 42046.

                                                                                                                                                CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                The promised explanation of the new batch of HadCM3N tasks has been posted here.

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                                                                                                                                                Message 42065 - Posted 29 Apr 2011 21:32:02 UTC

                                                                                                                                                  There has been a set back with the implementation of a new label for models.

                                                                                                                                                  No Resubmission is intended to be a flag to stop the automatic generation of the next set of years in a series for a data set, for the 3 varieties of regional models.
                                                                                                                                                  It is being used instead of Not needed, which was/is causing confusion due to this label already being used to indicate something else.

                                                                                                                                                  However, it seems that the new message, or more likely, some of the associated code changes to fit it into the BOINC server system, is causing BOINC to think that the model(s) was never sent to peoples computers, so people now get a new 'worrying' message: Message from server: Completed result .....: this result wasn't sent (not needed)
                                                                                                                                                  Which is obviously wrong, as the model WAS sent AND completed.

                                                                                                                                                  As can be seen by looking at the server page for affected models:
                                                                                                                                                  The trickles are all there.
                                                                                                                                                  The graphs are there. (So the zips are there.)
                                                                                                                                                  Some, if not all, credits are there.

                                                                                                                                                  So the science data is safely stored on the project's servers.

                                                                                                                                                  What is missing:
                                                                                                                                                  The messages under Stderr
                                                                                                                                                  Run time
                                                                                                                                                  CPU time
                                                                                                                                                  Client state is still showing as New

                                                                                                                                                  So, more work needs to be done.
                                                                                                                                                  But there's a 4 day long weekend in the UK, so it'll be Tuesday morning UK time before we can expect anything to change.
                                                                                                                                                  Probably after several strong cups of coffee.
                                                                                                                                                  Oops. This is England. Make that several strong cups of tea.



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                                                                                                                                                  Message 42169 - Posted 13 May 2011 22:50:17 UTC

                                                                                                                                                    The pool of models is just about empty.
                                                                                                                                                    The project people know about it getting low.

                                                                                                                                                    Now is a good time to to start a new hobby while waiting for more.
                                                                                                                                                    Reading
                                                                                                                                                    Gardening
                                                                                                                                                    Long distance running



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                                                                                                                                                    Message 42193 - Posted 17 May 2011 22:06:39 UTC

                                                                                                                                                      CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                      The current lack of work available for download should hopefully be resolved within the next couple of days.

                                                                                                                                                      You may not be surprised to hear that the problem has, once again, been disk space. The amount of free space on the main database server started to become critical last week and to ease the process of recovering some disk space the pool of work was allowed to run dry. The project team have been moving data off of the server to make room for the extra data it will have to accommodate when new work is released. This work is ongoing.

                                                                                                                                                      In parallel they have also been transferring 2TB of data to the download mirror servers in preparation for the release on a new batch of weather@home (HadAM3P regional) tasks. Work for the PNW region will be included in this batch.

                                                                                                                                                      They are also investigating the possibility of moving the daily credit calculation process to the backup database server. If this is possible it would relieve the active server of of its most significant load.
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                                                                                                                                                      Message 42201 - Posted 18 May 2011 19:42:59 UTC

                                                                                                                                                        A batch of EU Regional tasks was released today. I haven't tried to download any, so can't confirm that they're actually available. If you have trouble downloading, please post.

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                                                                                                                                                        Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

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                                                                                                                                                        Message 42223 - Posted 21 May 2011 0:00:25 UTC

                                                                                                                                                          CDPN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                          The availability of work is likely to be very intermittent for a few days.

                                                                                                                                                          Although the server status page almost always shows no tasks available the Weather@home resubmission process is running and new workunits are being generated from completed HadAM3P regional tasks. Due to the large number of hosts requesting work getting hold of a task is very much down to luck; the tasks created from the resubmission workunits are disappearing as quickly as they become available.

                                                                                                                                                          A number of server configuration changes are taking place to reduce the load placed on climateapps2 and no new batches of work will be released until these have been completed:


                                                                                                                                                          1. another server will be assuming the role of the third download mirror server. This will free up a lot of the disk space and network bandwidth on climateapps2. During the reconfiguration process files are being transferred off of climateapps2. This might result in some users experiencing download failures; apologies if you are one of those affected.

                                                                                                                                                          2. as previously mentioned, the daily credit calculation will be moved from climateapps2 to relieve it of intense CPU and database loads required for that process. It will almost certainly be moved to the backup database server. This should stop the problems with scheduler requests and BOINC forum access which can occur when the credit script is running.

                                                                                                                                                          3. climateapps2 will continue to serve as the scheduler and primary database server.


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                                                                                                                                                          Message 42274 - Posted 27 May 2011 23:06:49 UTC

                                                                                                                                                            Last modified: 27 May 2011 23:10:15 UTC

                                                                                                                                                            CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                            The server status page is currently showing uploader1.atm.ox.ac.uk as not running. That's where the _3, _6, _9 and _12 upload files for Weather@home (HadAM3P regional) models are sent.

                                                                                                                                                            uploader1 was running short of disk space yesterday and Milo took it down for a while to recover some space by moving some FAMOUS upload files to another server. He was hoping this would give sufficient leeway to allow a larger quantity of HadAM3P data to be moved while the system was accepting new uploads, but it looks like this hasn't been possible. Moving upload files between servers is never going to be a trivial process; the uploaded data is being used by researchers around the world and the integrity of the results database used to retrieve the data has to be maintained at all times.

                                                                                                                                                            Any completed Weather@home tasks will stay in the "Uploading" state until uploader1 is back up. Tasks in that state cannot be reported until those files have been uploaded but will already have received their full credit because that's determined from the trickles sent to the scheduler. Please do not abort any tasks stuck in this state.

                                                                                                                                                            Unfortunately the server reconfiguration exercise started a week ago is taking a lot longer than was anticipated. As mentioned last week, there will be no new batches of tasks until this has been completed. The recent reports of stuck downloads might be due to point #1 in the last news post.

                                                                                                                                                            A number of users have reported a discrepancy between the credits reported on the CPDN site and third party statistics sites. This is because the export file retrieved by third party statistics sites hasn't been updated for a couple of weeks. I'm not sure if this is intended or accidental.
                                                                                                                                                            ____________
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                                                                                                                                                            Message 42307 - Posted 1 Jun 2011 20:50:14 UTC

                                                                                                                                                              A test run has been made for running the credits calcs on the backup server.
                                                                                                                                                              This appears to have been successful.
                                                                                                                                                              At least, I've received a large increase on BOINCstats. :)

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                                                                                                                                                              Message 42318 - Posted 4 Jun 2011 15:19:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                Last modified: 4 Jun 2011 15:21:03 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                                The server reconfiguration work has almost been completed but unfortunately neither Jonathan nor Andy were aware that the new download server (manticore.oerc.ox.ac.uk) would be inaccessible to users until the relevant port had been opened up on the university's firewall. All files without an application version stamp appear to be affected and they will be stuck in BOINC's transfer queue until the firewall changes have been made. This is unlikely to happen until Monday.
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                                                                                                                                                                Message 42329 - Posted 5 Jun 2011 9:42:15 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                  CPDN MainProject

                                                                                                                                                                  If CPDN is the only BOINC project your computer is attached to and all of its tasks have file downloads waiting for the firewall changes BOINC Manager might display a pop-up balloon advising you to run "Advanced - Do network communication". This will cancel all retry timers but leave any project backoff timers running. Any pending scheduler requests will be retried immediately but uploads and downloads will only be retried for files with no project backoff. Forcing network communications as advised will have no effect; the pending downloads will still fail.
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                                                                                                                                                                  Message 42337 - Posted 5 Jun 2011 20:47:40 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                    Just for completeness in this News thread.

                                                                                                                                                                    Posted Friday June 3, by Jonathan, the projects Sysadmin:

                                                                                                                                                                    Bad news here - there has been a water leak in the offices, which means that the electricity is to be turned off for some hours at 1 pm GMT.

                                                                                                                                                                    So that's it for the day and the week. :(


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                                                                                                                                                                    Message 42347 - Posted 6 Jun 2011 17:19:51 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                      CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                                      Jonathan posted the following update on the phpBB forum:

                                                                                                                                                                      The firewall alterations mentioned above were made at 11:15 BST today, so downloads from manticore should be taking place now.

                                                                                                                                                                      On a related issue, in the coming few days we hope to transfer all the downloads to a new server:
                                                                                                                                                                      http://cpdn-downloads.oerc.ox.ac.uk/
                                                                                                                                                                      (and yes, we have checked that it is accessible outside the firewall )

                                                                                                                                                                      This will be taking place over the next few days, and once the transfers are complete we hope to relieve uploader1, climatepreciction.net and manticore of their download responsibilities. These servers, (together with climateapps2) will ultimately be redirecting clients to the above server to manage all download requests.

                                                                                                                                                                      We will update people as to the progress as and when it happens.

                                                                                                                                                                      Some users might find that downloads continue to fail until they restart BOINC (that was certainly the case for me).
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                                                                                                                                                                      Message 42357 - Posted 7 Jun 2011 22:00:11 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                        Two new batches of the hadcm3N were created in the last few days.
                                                                                                                                                                        One of these was a control set, the other included forcings.
                                                                                                                                                                        One of the forcings was a bit overly enthusiastic, and has/is causing models to fail after a few seconds.

                                                                                                                                                                        The project people know about this, and there's no need to report these failures.

                                                                                                                                                                        More thumb twiddling time. :)


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                                                                                                                                                                        Message 42393 - Posted 10 Jun 2011 21:06:05 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                          A new batch of 3,000 RAPID-RAPIT models are currently being created and released.

                                                                                                                                                                          This is for a short term project, and the results are needed soonest.
                                                                                                                                                                          The models are 40 years long, (if they complete :) ).
                                                                                                                                                                          If your computer hasn't run a long climate model before, BOINC may be shocked into 'panic mode'. Don't worry; the time-to-completion will drop fairly fast as BOINC learns.
                                                                                                                                                                          DON'T abort one of them just because you think that it'll take too long. Just keep calm and carry on. Or, at least, let BOINC carry on. :)

                                                                                                                                                                          Some that I picked up overnight are saying 970-980 hours. This is about 40 days, which is about right for my machines for these long models.


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                                                                                                                                                                          Message 42394 - Posted 10 Jun 2011 21:06:37 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                            Last modified: 11 Jun 2011 20:34:12 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                            A new problem has appeared for the latest batch of hadcm3N models, which may fail at about 13 hours in. :(
                                                                                                                                                                            More details when details are known.

                                                                                                                                                                            No need to start posting about it. :)

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                                                                                                                                                                            Message 42432 - Posted 20 Jun 2011 23:06:24 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                              The next phase of the RAPIT/RAPID models are now being auto-generated from the completed models from the first phase.

                                                                                                                                                                              Note 1: They're being grabbed as soon as they appear, and the one hour back off still applies to prevent a few computers from hogging all of the work.
                                                                                                                                                                              Note 2: Attempts to use the Update button to speed things up will have the opposite effect - the timer will be reset to 1 hour (+/-), and you'll be back to square one.

                                                                                                                                                                              ************************

                                                                                                                                                                              More of the Regional models will be available Real Soon Now, for people who prefer shorter models.



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                                                                                                                                                                              Message 42460 - Posted 24 Jun 2011 22:00:48 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                To make it a bit more "official", I'm re-posting part of one of my posts from another thread:


                                                                                                                                                                                It must also be kept in mind what was probably posted a long time ago now - There were only about 3,000 models issued for the spinup part of the hadcm3n series. And each subsequent batch will be the next phase, automatically generated from those in the first batch that completed.
                                                                                                                                                                                Some of them will have been aborted, some abandoned, and some will still be running on computers with low resources for this project.
                                                                                                                                                                                So the number issued for the 2nd batch will be less than 3,000. And the project's front page says that there are currently 34,812 active computers. Down a fair bit from the 40,000+ of a few weeks ago, but still a less than 1 in 10 chance of getting a hadcm3n.

                                                                                                                                                                                There'll be a better chance when the next lot of regional models get released, but that won't happen until after the ongoing problems with the RAPIT lot is sorted out.

                                                                                                                                                                                Basically, there's little to no work from this project at the moment.


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                                                                                                                                                                                Message 42497 - Posted 29 Jun 2011 20:09:45 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                  Last modified: 29 Jun 2011 20:21:22 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                  CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                                                  After a number of false starts with faulty greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing parameters the second phase of the RAPIT project has now started in earnest.

                                                                                                                                                                                  HadCM3N tasks have names in the format hadcm3n_{umid}_{start year}_40_* (where 40 is the number of model years the task runs for).

                                                                                                                                                                                  {umid} is a 4 character universal model identity, with the first character being the main indicator of the type of model being run as follows:


                                                                                                                                                                                  • 'o', 'p' and 'q' are control models with no GHG forcing. These should continue through the resubmission processes at 1940 and 1980 (and beyond if the scientists decide that's required) with no problems.

                                                                                                                                                                                  • at the first resubmission (hadcm3n_{umid}_1940_40_*) each successful control should, in addition, spawn a new series of workunits with a range of GHG forcing parameters. This has been the problem area, with the first character of the {umid} set as follows:

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 'r' - a large batch of workunits which all fail at the end of the first model year before a trickle is generated. Most of these have been completed but if you have a task with the name format hadcm3n_rXXX_1940_40_ it should be aborted.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 's' - another large batch, this time failing at the end of the 10th model year, just before the trickle and upload file are generated. If you have a task with the name format hadcm3n_sXXX_1940_40_ it should be aborted. The workunits for these tasks have been cancelled on the server to prevent reissues.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 'b' to 'i' - small test batches which will fail at the end of the first or 10th model year. These should be aborted.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 'j' - a small test batch with GHG forcing brought forward from 1950 to 1941. These tasks should complete as long as the climate doesn't go wild.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 'k' - a small stress test batch with highly variable GHG forcing. These tasks should also complete as long as the climate doesn't go wild.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • 't' - this is the large batch of work currently being generated from the 'o' series controls which have completed the first phase. Tasks with the name format hadcm3n_tXXX_1940_40_ should complete as long as the climate doesn't go wild.


                                                                                                                                                                                  A small number of hadcm3n_tXXX_1980_40_ workunits have been generated from 'o' series tasks which have already completed the second phase. This shouldn't have happened (the _tXXX_1980_ batch should be a continuation of the _tXXX_1940_ batch). These have been cancelled on the server to prevent reissues and should be aborted.

                                                                                                                                                                                  NOTE: tasks with the name format hadcm3n_tXXX_1980_40_ will start appearing again in 2 or 3 weeks and will be from genuine resubmission workunits. These should not be aborted.
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                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 42508 - Posted 30 Jun 2011 18:44:28 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                    Lots of regional models (EU at present), now available, with more to come.


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                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 42539 - Posted 3 Jul 2011 21:17:14 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                      The recently released regional models were of two types:

                                                                                                                                                                                      Some new ones, which are failing for reasons as yet unknown, and
                                                                                                                                                                                      Some auto-regen models, which are apparently running OK. This is confirmed by a few reports.


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                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 42555 - Posted 4 Jul 2011 19:41:36 UTC - in response to Message 42539.

                                                                                                                                                                                        A new batch of regional models were created over the weekend, all of them regens from previously completed work, so they should be OK.

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                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 42583 - Posted 5 Jul 2011 17:02:13 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                          Mac users on CPDN Main and Beta Projects

                                                                                                                                                                                          We have evidence from a number of users that all CPDN applications can start failing immediately after an upgrade to BOINC 6.12.26. This appears to be related to a permissions change which makes it impossible for the controller process to launch the worker. Resetting the project (or detaching and reattaching) should fix the problem.

                                                                                                                                                                                          See here for further details.
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                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 42621 - Posted 15 Jul 2011 21:04:08 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                            Climateapps2 has been (mostly) restored, with an upgrade to both the OS and the BOINC server software. It was complicated by the server being located in a room of a different department, and needing the IT person from there to do the work.

                                                                                                                                                                                            Hopefully things will be more stable for a while. :)


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                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 42653 - Posted 22 Jul 2011 22:00:22 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                              climateapps2, (which hosts this board, members pages, etc), is still experiencing some problems, hopefully only caused by excessive load from computers wanting to chat.
                                                                                                                                                                                              There is a message on our other, php board, about the recent problems, so I'm posting this link to it.


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                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 42657 - Posted 23 Jul 2011 19:58:54 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                Last modified: 23 Jul 2011 22:17:25 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                The BOINC server IP seems to have changed, if you still experience problems connecting to the scheduler, you might need to restart your BOINC client.

                                                                                                                                                                                                Allem Anschein nach hat sich die IP des BOINC-Servers geaendert, wenn weiterhin Probleme beim Schedulerkontakt auftreten, muesst Ihr evtl. Euren BOINC-Client einmal durchstarten.


                                                                                                                                                                                                edit :

                                                                                                                                                                                                This fixes only the "Couldn't connect to server" error, server side errors cannot be fixed that easily.

                                                                                                                                                                                                Das behebt nur den Fehler "Couldn't connect to server", Fehler auf Serverseite kann man leider nicht so leicht beheben.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 42734 - Posted 2 Aug 2011 10:42:07 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Last modified: 2 Aug 2011 10:46:49 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                  The recent 2 batches of regional models, (pnw and then eu), have a problem with trying to return the final file, zip13.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  This is the restart file, and is intended to go to climateapps1.oucs. This is one of the servers that was moved from the oerc department to the oucs department. Redirects were put in place for the present, but the one to climateaps1 isn't working.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  This is resulting in HTTP errors when attempting to upload zip13 files.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  To fix this, an edit of client_state.xml is necessary.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ========================

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Suspend BOINC in the manager, and then exit from both the manager and the client parts.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  With a plain text editor, e.g. Notepad, open client_state.xml.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Locate the uploader section of the pnw/eu model.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Keep "locating" until you reach the one for zip13.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  It's in the <file_info> section for each model, just after <upload_when_present/>.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  DON'T touch the second one! It's in a signed (security) section!

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Change the 4 characters in the string uploader.oerc.ox.ac.uk from oerc to oucs

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Do this for all pnw/eu models THAT ARE RUNNING.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Save the file
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Restart BOINC.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  The files should now upload. (Been there, done that, as they say. )
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ========================

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Don't bother with pnw models that haven't started yet. They have another problem, and should be aborted. (They're going to be regenerated.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  (The project may use a Killer trickle on these unstarted models.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Also abort them if they've been started, but you haven't applied the fpops fix to them.

                                                                                                                                                                                                  This is getting complicated, so feel free to post. The big problem is the people who don't read either of the boards.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 42749 - Posted 3 Aug 2011 14:12:58 UTC - in response to Message 42734.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Change the 4 characters in the string uploader.oerc.ox.ac.uk from oerc to oucs

                                                                                                                                                                                                    A DNS redirection is now in place and the final upload for HadAM3P regional models (the *_13.zip file) should now work without this change.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    If you continue to have problems uploading the final upload file please let us know.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 42756 - Posted 5 Aug 2011 7:12:58 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                      I've just finished uploading the last file (zip13), for an eu model, so the DNS redirect is working.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 42828 - Posted 28 Aug 2011 8:20:29 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Posts are starting to appear asking about the next lot of work, so this may be best answered as a news item.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        At present there are only 2 groups of researchers, the RAPIT group, and the dual resolution (regional models) group.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        The original models for both groups were created and sent out ages ago, and, as they get returned, the next step in the series is automatically created by an 'auto-regen' program.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Only those models that make it all the way to the end will be continued to the next stage. Those that become unstable and fail, and those that are abandoned or aborted won't go any further.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Occasionally, the researchers may ask for more new series to be created, if it looks like there won't be enough making it to form a good sample.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        With only a few thousand models, and 35,000+ computers connected, you just need to be patient if you're after work.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 43107 - Posted 30 Sep 2011 11:25:15 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Some model files have recently failed to upload when the CPDN upload server rejected them because of an invalid signature. This has happened since Boinc changed the procedure regarding the way files are (or are not) signed. CPDN complied with the requested change but did not realise at first that the change applies to every upload server.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          All files from all model types should now be accepted by all the upload servers.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 43135 - Posted 3 Oct 2011 18:23:25 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Last modified: 3 Oct 2011 18:25:39 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jonathan says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                            One of the project servers has gone offline with a major disk problem.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            This will primarily affect those people processing the regional model (WeatherAtHome; Hadam3p), because certain upload files are set to be received by the server Uploader1.atm.ox.ac.uk.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            There may also be problems accessing file downloads from this server

                                                                                                                                                                                                            The earliest fix date for this is tomorrow (4 October 2011) afternoon (GMT), assuming that the replacement disk arrives on time.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Please accept our apologies for the disruption.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jonathan Miller

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                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 43155 - Posted 7 Oct 2011 15:40:20 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                              The new hard disk has been installed, and the RAID is currently re-building itself.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              This could take a loooooong time. :)


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                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 43191 - Posted 10 Oct 2011 20:17:17 UTC - in response to Message 43155.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                The server is now back up and running.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 43227 - Posted 15 Oct 2011 15:54:28 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Some of the latest batch of hadam3p models have a problem with 'permissions' on one of the mirror servers.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  This will cause 2 of the ancillary files to have a temporary download failure.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  And it's the weekend at Oxford again.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 43234 - Posted 16 Oct 2011 12:39:21 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The permissions problem causing HADAM3P download errors should now have been fixed. If anyone gets a new occurence of this problem then please report it in this thread ...

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 43291 - Posted 26 Oct 2011 9:50:40 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      As many members already know, CPDN was down for a week before being brought back up yesterday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Last week Jonathan posted on the independent forum:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      'On 18 October 2011 the CPDN project server was attacked. We have had to respond by taking the project offline.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      I will provide more info as I have it, but I will be devoting my time to fixing the issues and determining the extent of the problem.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jonathan'

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      And yesterday Andy added this:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      'Update to: Security incident

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      On 18 October 2011 we suffered a hacking attack on the servers of the CPDN project.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      As a volunteer driven research project for studying climate change we were very dismayed such action caused to disrupt the project. This attack unfortunately forced us to take the project down whilst the issue was investigated, during this time we conducting a full security analysis, now we are satisfied of the results of the security analysis we have brought the project back online.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Unfortunately some data of our users had been compromised. We have contacted by email all those users that are affected by this, this represents less than 0.5% of participants. If you have not been emailed (to the email address associated with that CPDN account) then you won't be affect by this issue and you need take no action on this.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      We can only send this email to the email addresses associated with the accounts concerned, some of these address may now be inactive so please check any old addresses that you may have used when registering with the CPDN project. There also a possibility that your spam filter may have withheld the email.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      We offer our apologies for any inconvenience caused by this. This is an exciting time for the project in terms of science, and we deeply value all the continued contribution of participants.'

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Please do check that you are using an up-to-date email address for your Boinc projects. And that you use the same one for every project you join. So if you have to change your email address for CPDN please change it for your other projects too.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 43293 - Posted 26 Oct 2011 9:59:01 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Reminder

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It's a good idea for all CPDN members also to register on the independent forum. So if this forum is ever down you can still post about problems. Registration there is separate from this forum.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        http://climateprediction.net/board/index.php
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 43318 - Posted 29 Oct 2011 20:55:46 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          For those people concerned that the data they're returning isn't showing up on the servers, and that they've not been getting credit lately, there is a simple answer:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Some of the scripts (programs), haven't been restarted yet.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          It'll all work out in the end.




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 43344 - Posted 31 Oct 2011 22:45:11 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The trickles are starting to show up, so one more step on the path to a full recovery.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 43395 - Posted 10 Nov 2011 2:17:10 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              CPDN will be taken offline at 9.00 am GMT on Thursday 10 November 2011.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              This is to facilitate the relocation of our project servers. It is anticipated that the downtime will be for no longer than 48 hours, but the project should be considered 'at-risk' until noon on 14 November 2011 GMT.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jonathan

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 43399 - Posted 16 Nov 2011 2:46:56 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The servers are up and running again. Some hadam3p regional model files are still unable to upload; this problem will probably be fixed on Wednesday but it will take some time for the large backlog of waiting files to upload.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Many thanks to Jonathan who spent a good part of his weekend with the servers.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 43417 - Posted 18 Nov 2011 1:14:07 UTC - in response to Message 43399.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  There's still a problem for a few uploads, as the university's IT people haven't yet updated the relevant DNS records for the servers that were moved.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  So more thumb twiddling.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 43483 - Posted 28 Nov 2011 21:45:03 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    There's a continuing problem with the servers storing user's data. It's possible that it's something to do with mirroring the data to a second server, intended to reduce the load on the main server.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    It affects all data returned, which, at least for my models, gives the impression that the data is disappearing into a black hole. Perhaps the huge amount of accumulated data has caused the data base to reach a critical point, and form a worm hole into another universe.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The project people know about the problem and are still investigating.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 43500 - Posted 3 Dec 2011 0:55:10 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      There are some reports of files still not uploading.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If this is the case for anyone, would they please post here.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Include your computer ID so that it can be looked at in the database.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If there are messages saying why they aren't uploading, include those as well.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 43597 - Posted 22 Dec 2011 17:04:34 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jonathan says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        On behalf of all the members of the CPDN team I should like to wish you all a very happy Christmas.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It has been an eventful year at CPDN. Andy and I have spent most of it wrestling with hardware failures, software misconfigurations, storage issues etc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Throughout this period we've had pretty solid support from all of our volunteers who have crunched their way through over 100 billion CPU cycles, donating the equivalent of thousands of years of CPU time to climate science research.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Thanks again, and see you in the New Year.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jonathan
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 43650 - Posted 6 Jan 2012 23:19:35 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          From the News on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Submission of new Weather At Home batch (HadAM3P_EU workunits)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We have just submitted a new batch of Weather At Home workunits. These new workunits form part of the Weather At Home project and are a perturbed physics ensemble of historical (1998-present) climate. The first phase of the Weather At Home project, launched in November 2010, has provided us with many useful simulations which we have compared to observations of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes to evaluate model performance. This evaluation has enabled us to further constrain parameter values to fit with historical observations, forming a new ensemble of workunits which is now being released. Once again, thank you all for running these models!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Andy


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 43651 - Posted 6 Jan 2012 23:21:46 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            From the News on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Happy New Year to everyone involved in climateprediction.net!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            We recently passed the first anniversary of the launch of the "Weatherathome" regional modelling experiment. CPDN extends huge thanks to all participants for crunching these demanding models, which will enable scientists to investigate the potential changes to regional patterns of weather, and extreme weather, as climate changes in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            You may be interested to know a few facts and figures relating to this first year of Weatherathome, in which three regions have been modelled - Europe, Southern Africa and the western U.S.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            As of 30 November, 2011:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - 172,831 individual Weatherathome model runs have been successfully completed - this is equivalent to 172,831 simulation years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - These models have been run by 33,328 computers - these computers are owned by 19,987 users in 142 different countries.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - The total CPDN credit granted to these users for running these models is: 424,719,023.4259

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - The total CPU time donated to run these models is: 69,288,699,787.3355 seconds. This is equal to 2,197 years of CPU time, which is equivalent to running a machine with 2,197 processors full-time for one year.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            .... all of which reminds us just how awesome a facility the CPDN crunchers provide. Big thanks to everyone for their continued support.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SueR


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 43708 - Posted 25 Jan 2012 20:26:55 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Just posted by Andy on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Submission of new Weather At Home batch (HadAM3P_PNW workunits)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              We have just submitted a new batch of Weather At Home workunits. These new workunits form part of the Weather at Home project and are a perturbed physics ensemble of historical (1999-present) climate. The workunits are for the Western US region and are identical to those released for the EU region at the beginning of January 2012. We are investigating modelling uncertainty by perturbing 12 important model parameters. The aim is to quantify how these perturbations effect simulated weather in the Western US. Many thanks for running these models!



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 43709 - Posted 26 Jan 2012 20:17:16 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Posted by Andy on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Submission of new Weather At Home batch (HadAM3P_EU workunits)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                We have just submitted a new batch of Weather At Home workunits. These new workunits form part of the Weather at Home project and are a perturbed physics ensemble of historical (1960-present) climate. The workunits are for the European region. We are investigating modelling uncertainty by perturbing 12 important model parameters. The aim is to quantify how these perturbations effect simulated weather in Europe. Again many thanks for running these models!



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 43776 - Posted 11 Feb 2012 22:54:58 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  From:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jonathan Miller
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  CPDN SysAdmin

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The server that receives completed work units for the EU region of the Weather@home project is suffering intermittent faults, resulting in failed uploads.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The name of the affected server is uploader1.atm.ox.ac.uk

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  We will let participants know when we have more information on the likely time for completion of the repairs.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 43832 - Posted 21 Feb 2012 17:04:33 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Posted by Andy on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Submission of new Weather At Home batch covering Europe over the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    We have just submitted a new batch of Weather At Home workunits. These new workunits form part of the Weather at Home project and are a perturbed physics ensemble of historical (1970s-1990s) climate. We are investigating modelling uncertainty by perturbing important model parameters. The aim is to quantify how these perturbations effect simulated weather in Europe between 1970 and 2000. Once again many thanks for running these models!


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 43861 - Posted 23 Feb 2012 18:21:31 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Posted by Andy on the phpBB forum:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Publication of first results from Weather At Home experiment!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      In the summer 2010 Western Russia was hit by an extraordinary heat wave, with the region experiencing by far the warmest July since records began. Whether or not this event was caused (in parts) by anthropogenic climate change has been a source controversy. Dole et al. (2011) reported that the 2010 Russian heat wave was "mainly natural in origin" whereas Rahmstorf and Coumou (2011) wrote that with a probability of 80% "the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred" without large-scale climate warming since 1980. Most of this large scale warming has been attributed to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter study explicitly states that their results "contradict those of Dole et al. (2011)".

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      By using the results from the Weather At Home experiment we show that there is no substantive contradiction between these two papers. The same event can be both mostly internally-generated in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven in terms of the probability of such an event occurring. The difference in conclusion between these two papers illustrates the importance of specifying precisely what question is being asked. We argue you need to ask both questions, whether the magnitude was inside the natural variability and whether the frequency of such heatwaves to occur has changed. Our answer is that the magnitude of the heat wave was mainly natural in origin, but the possibility of such a heat wave occurring has increased by a factor of 3-4 times due to anthropogenic climate change.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      We would like to thank all the participants for running the models for this study!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      More can be read about this paper in the following links:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-10.shtml
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/21/climate-change-russian-heatwave

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 43960 - Posted 20 Mar 2012 20:56:13 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        As can be seen from the Server Status page, uploader.oerc is currently shut down. It has a problem which is being looked into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        This server handles the restart data files for all 3 Weather at Home (regional) models, (zip 13), so until it's fixed, computers won't be able to upload these. :(

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It also houses the auto-regen program, which takes the data from these restart data files, and uses it to create the next data set in the series for each model.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        So there won't be any of these for a while either.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        For those who are only running cpdn, just shut off the Network access after the other zips have been uploaded.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        For those running multiple projects and who need to have continual Network access, commiserations.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 43969 - Posted 4 Apr 2012 8:36:56 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Last modified: 4 Apr 2012 8:40:08 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Posted by Andy on the Independent forum:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          "abowery" wrote:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Publication of results from BBC climate change experiment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          This week the first results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment were published in Nature Geoscience. The experiment, first launched in 2006, represents the first multi thousand member ensemble of simulations using a complex coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, and addresses some of the uncertainties that previous forecasts, using simpler models or only a few dozen simulations, may have over-looked. Results from the experiment suggest that a global warming of 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 is as equally plausible as a rise of 1.4 degrees (relative to the 1961-1990 average). This range is derived from the range of simulations in the ensemble that accurately reproduce observed temperature changes over the last 50 years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The results suggest that the world is very likely to cross the '2 degrees barrier' at some point this century if emissions continue unabated, and that those planning for the impacts of climate change need to consider the possibility of warming of up to 3 degrees (above the 1961-1990 average) by 2050 even on a mid-range emission scenario. This is a faster rate of warming than most other models predict.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We would like to thank all the participants involved in the BBC climate change experiment for their continued support to the project!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Link: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1430.html

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 44031 - Posted 16 Apr 2012 21:12:51 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Posted by Andy on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Submission of new Weather At Home batch covering Western US from 1959-1998

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            These new workunits form part of the Weather At Home and are a perturbed physics ensemble of historical (1959-1998) climate. The workunits are for the Western US region and are identical to those released for the EU region at the beginning of January 2012. We are investigating modelling uncertainty by perturbing 12 important model parameters. The aim is to quantify how these perturbations effect simulated weather in the Western US. Once again many thanks for running these models!



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 44076 - Posted 23 Apr 2012 18:16:05 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Last modified: 23 Apr 2012 18:24:17 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              As can be seen from the Server Status page, 2 of the upload servers are currently shut down due to hard disk problems:


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • uploader.oerc receives the final upload files (_13.zip) for all of the Weather at Home (HadAM3P regional) tasks. These files are required to generate the atmosphere and ocean restart files for the next data set in the task series.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • uploader1.atm receives the intermediate uploads (_1.zip to _12.zip) for some of the hadam3p_eu tasks.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jonathan is planning to install a Virtual Machine to take over their jobs tomorrow. Hopefully the available pool of work won't be exhausted before he completes the job.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 44183 - Posted 16 May 2012 21:05:05 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Posted by Andy on our php board:


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Submission of new Weather At Home batch covering the European region

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                We have just submitted a new batch/ensemble of workunits. The experiment aims to try and quantify to what degree recent climate change can be attributed to the effects of human interference in the climate system. The driving conditions fed into the models are modified to reflect what they would have been like if we had not produced the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions that we have over the past century. The difference between these simulations and the initial "baseline" runs (which CPDN participants have been running over the last year) will provide the basis for assessing the human contribution to recent weather trends. In the first instance, these simulations will be run for the last decade (2000-2010). This will allow us to investigate recent extreme weather events, such as the 2010 Russian heatwave and the 2007 UK flooding. This work also builds on previous CPDN research, which looked at the anthropogenic contribution to UK flood risk in the year 2000.



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 44227 - Posted 25 May 2012 20:40:57 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Posted on our php board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Essential maintenance on our storage infrastructure will require our main uploads servers to go out of service at the following time:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Wed 30 May 2012; 8:30-10:30 GMT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The following servers will be affected

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  cpdn-uploads2.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  uploader.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  cpdn-restarts.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  climateapps1.oerc.ox.ac.uk

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  I anticipate that the service will be resumed within the allocated time period, and that downloads deferred during this period will catch up over the next few hours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  If you experience any problems after this scheduled downtime, please let us know by posting on the boards.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jonathan Miller


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 44358 - Posted 10 Jun 2012 22:47:55 UTC - in response to Message 44227.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The project's servers have been having problems of various types for several days now. Some of this requires a physical presence in the server rooms, and, as this requires access permission from the IT people in charge of the various rooms, which are in various buildings across the city which is the University of Oxford, nothing will start to be done until Monday morning UK time.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Some of these 'repairs' may require a server to be taken off line. In the past this has sometimes been for several days.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The Server Status page can be accessed from the blue menu to the left of here, 5 from the bottom.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 44365 - Posted 11 Jun 2012 19:57:52 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The servers are all now running again.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      However there's a lot of pushing and shoving from zips waiting in the queues, resulting in messages such as:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Error on file upload: can't open log file '../log_aforgomon/file_upload_handler.log' (errno: 9)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Temporarily failed upload of hadam3p_eu_cv85_2006_1_007960023_0_12.zip: transient upload error

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Patience is the only cure.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 44386 - Posted 12 Jun 2012 21:51:13 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        The problem mentioned in the previous post was due to a program failing. This has been fixed.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        But now a server is down, possibly filled up.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 44412 - Posted 15 Jun 2012 16:14:17 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Last modified: 15 Jun 2012 16:31:16 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jonathan has posted in the News thread of the independent forum:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The data centre in which our servers are hosted has suffered a network problem over the last 24 hours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The result is that two of our upload servers have had to be taken offline until further notice. The affected servers are cpdn-upload2.oerc and cpdn-restarts.oerc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          I don't anticipate a fix until after the weekend, i.e. Monday 18 June. Please accept our apologies about this.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 44479 - Posted 27 Jun 2012 21:46:04 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Upload failures have stated happening again in the last few hours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The current problem seems to be a repeat of a one from a few weeks ago; a 'disk mount' failure in the storage server that's fed by the upload server.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The upload server won't know that there's no storage server until it tries to transfer the data at the end of the upload.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            This is being discussed, and hopefully a fix will emerge to give the uploader some feedback before it OKs the client computer to start an upload.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The only cure at present is to Suspend the Network in the BOINC manager's menu.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Also, if models are nearing completion, Suspend them in the Tasks tab, so that they don't get a chance to contribute to bandwidth wastage.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            And Oxford Uni has just started it's 'Long Vacation', so there's probably only a skeleton staff looking after network problems. And no night shift.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Other changes have also been discussed in recent weeks. These may take a while, and be transparent to users anyway.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 44484 - Posted 28 Jun 2012 20:43:33 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The cause of the upload problem of the 26-27 June has been fixed.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              It was the storage server, but not what I thought.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 44494 - Posted 2 Jul 2012 11:27:09 UTC - in response to Message 44484.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hi,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Outage 30 June - 2 July.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The above loss of service was caused by a network problem with our database server.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The issue has been resolved.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apologies for the inconvenience this has caused.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jonathan

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 44495 - Posted 2 Jul 2012 11:43:30 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Last modified: 2 Jul 2012 11:53:08 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jonathan says that during the third week of July there'll be a planned outage for the problematic climateapps server, as some of its programs are rather antique. This scheduled outage will be announced in advance.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  For the time being our BOINC is only allowed to contact the CPDN servers once every two hours. This reduces the load on the servers. Please do not in the BOINC manager Projects tab repeatedly update CPDN, attempting to make it contact the server more frequently. This is counterproductive as it resets the time limit to the maximum of one or two hours, whichever Jonathan has specified.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 44529 - Posted 14 Jul 2012 1:35:52 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Andy says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Two Weather At Home papers published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (From the press release)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Extreme weather events in 2011 cost billions and claimed thousands of lives, but to what extent can such events be blamed on climate change due to rising greenhouse gas levels? The first set of studies to try to assess the extreme events of 2011 is published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), examining how human and natural influences on climate contributed to the weather events of 2011. Such assessments are a useful tool for those wanting to set levels of compensation, which by coincidence is high on the agenda of the Re|Source workshop in Oxford which was held this week for climate change negotiators from developing countries.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Two papers cited by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society results from the Oxford-led weatherathome project, in which members of the public help model recent weather trends on home computers. One, led by the University of Oregon, showed how the risk of the 2011 Texas heatwave and drought has increased substantially since the 1960s. The second, led by Neil Massey of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, showed how the odds of an exceptionally warm November, such as 2011’s, have increased over the same period in the UK, while the odds of a cold December, like 2010’s, have fallen.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ‘Where and when extreme weather events occur is still largely a matter of luck,’ explains Professor Myles Allen of the School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, a co-author on three of these new studies, ‘but science can help us understand how different factors are loading the weather dice.’

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Both these studies note that various factors have contributed to climate change since the 1960s but that most of the recent large-scale warming was very likely due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The third study, led by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, concluded human influence on global climate had little to do with the 2011 floods that devastated Thailand.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ‘Not all damaging weather events that occur have been made more likely by human-induced climate change,’ explains Allen. ‘Some, like those cold winters, appear to have been made less likely, but can still occur by chance. Others, like those Thai floods, haven’t been affected either way as far as we can tell. Sorting these things out is essential in working out the true cost of climate change.’

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The possibility of compensation for unavoidable costs of climate change has explosive implications for international climate change negotiations. Dr Daniel Ortega-Pacheco, Director of Environment and Climate Change in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ecuador, in Oxford for the workshop of the European Capacity Building Initiative, remarked: ‘Quantifying loss and damage is vital for evidence-based climate policy. This kind of science will play a key role in future negotiations.’

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The workshop for developing country negotiators in international climate change talks is led by Dr Benito Müeller, from the Faculty of Philosophy and Associate of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. The workshop, which took place on the 10th July, was attended by representatives from countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 44623 - Posted 3 Aug 2012 19:01:34 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The CPDN BOINC site has been under a sustained spammer attack for 3 weeks. In response to this Jonathan has added highly targeted protection to shut down the attack route.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The spammers have created 109 accounts by attaching a computer to the project with no intention of running tasks (the web option for creating accounts was disabled a long time ago in response to a previous spammer attack).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Although the spam accounts were created from 97 different IP addresses in Romania we suspect they all originated at a single computer.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Some users might find they can't access the pages which have been protected and we can only offer apologies in advance if you are one of them.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 44697 - Posted 13 Aug 2012 20:49:43 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        One of the upload servers has filled up.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        They've started to move the data, but from past experience it will take a couple of days to move several hundred gigabytes over the university network.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        In the meantime, either:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Turn off the Network connection, or, if you're running multiple projects,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Suspend all climate models and wait it out. In this case, all zips waiting to upload will continue to try doing so at regular intervals.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 44739 - Posted 18 Aug 2012 2:54:20 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          It looks like data is moving OK now.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          I uploaded 77 files over night/this morning my time.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 44782 - Posted 31 Aug 2012 11:32:11 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The hard disk running the operating system on upload server uploader1.atm has failed. A replacement disk has been ordered and will be installed when it arrives on Monday. Until that has been completed all uploads to that server (primarily the end of month uploads for most HadAM3P EU tasks) will fail.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 44878 - Posted 22 Sep 2012 20:31:31 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              It looks like uploader1.atm is out of disk space.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              I'll let the project people know.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 44898 - Posted 25 Sep 2012 21:34:32 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                From the other board's News:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                We suffered a brief network outage today, which prevented connections to or from various CPDN servers.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The fault developed at approximately 2 pm BST and continued for two hours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The hardware responsible is due to be replaced imminently, but the project is 'at risk' until that has been done (probably for another 12 hours).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jonathan Miller


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 44945 - Posted 1 Oct 2012 20:53:21 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The 2 project people are still working on the server problems.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  There was another network problem, which seems to be OK now.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  There's no time line for when all of this will be fixed.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 44997 - Posted 2 Oct 2012 19:49:20 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Data is being moved off several uploaders, but is being replaced almost as fast by thousands of computers.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The upload servers are virtually under DDOS attack, so please be patient.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 44998 - Posted 2 Oct 2012 19:59:18 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      When the server hosting this forum, (which is also an upload server, as well as holding the user account pages), is under heavy load, messages get accepted reasonably fast, but the acknowledgement may not get sent for some time.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The result is that it appears that the message has not been sent, and there is a temptation to keep clicking the Send button. This results in multiple identical posts.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Please don't do this!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Instead, if a reply doesn't arrive, do the following:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Open a new window.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Navigate to the thread where you're trying to post.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Look to see if your post is actually there.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If so, go back to the "posting" thread, and delete it.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If it's not, wait a few seconds and look again. THEN follow the line above.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 45034 - Posted 5 Oct 2012 20:32:43 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        From the News thread on our other board:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Submission of new Weather At Home batch (HadAM3P_EU workunits)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        These new workunits are designed to simulate the period December 2010 to November 2011. They will be forced using a new sea surface temperature data set (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis [OSTIA]). This data set has a high spatial and temporal resolution, which we hope will improve the simulation of storm tracks. The results from this experiment will be used to investigate the extreme weather events of 2011 and how such events are changing in response to climate change.




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 45043 - Posted 7 Oct 2012 16:23:49 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We seem to have a repeat of the PNW download HTTP errors on three files in the new batch. (My machines are piling-up messages.) Jonathan notified by PM.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Weekends!

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 45085 - Posted 14 Oct 2012 22:33:31 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            For those that don't visit our alternate forum, the links to climate science in this post may be of interest.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 45112 - Posted 19 Oct 2012 16:36:27 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              CPDN Main Project

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The Server Status page shows one of the upload servers out of action. The upload problem is primarily affecting Hadam EU (European) models, but files from other regional areas (SAF and PNW) and Hadcm global models may also be included in the transfer backoffs imposed by BOINC even if their own upload server is running.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              There is also some evidence that some (not all) files of some Hadam EU models cannot download and become stuck in the Transfers tab. These models cannot begin to run, but do not abort them as we hope that their final file downloads will complete when the servers are all fully functional again.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Please do not try to obtain new CPDN models for your computer by pressing the Update button in the Projects tab because almost no new models are available and our computers are only allowed to contact the CPDN server once per hour. Pressing the Retry now button in the Transfer tab will probably not help uploads to take place faster.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Thank you to all CPDN members for your patience.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 45115 - Posted 20 Oct 2012 2:33:42 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                With the continuing, although not too frequent, requests for help in logging back in after an extended absence, PLEASE make a copy of the BOINC file account_climateprediction.net.xml.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                This file contains the account key that's an alternative to the password.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Also save your username EXACTLY as it's written.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (Of course, saving the password would help a bit too.) :)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                It's surprising how many people can't remember names and passwords after a few years, and, as 'they' say: "An once of prevention is worth a pound of cure".


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 45132 - Posted 22 Oct 2012 19:01:04 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  From a post on our other board, in reply to a cruncher's question:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  One of our download servers had a hissy fit and stopped providing its hard drive via NFS. This was due to a hard drive error, which is now fixed.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  However, there is a complication that means some new work units were added to the database, but could not be moved to the downloads server because of the error above.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The symptom of this will be that whereas previously the error was HTTP 500 (server error) you will now get a HTTP 404.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Andy is looking into whether there is anything that can be done to cancel these work units.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jonathan



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 45162 - Posted 25 Oct 2012 9:59:37 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Andy says that CPDN researcher Neil Massey is preparing a new batch of workunits but he is not yet sure exactly when they'll be released.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jonathan is freeing up space on uploader1.atm so that uploads can proceed. The amount of data involved is enormous which is why the job takes time. Until Jonathan enables this server again the uploads assigned to it cannot yet proceed and our files will remain stuck in the Transfers tab. You may find that your _13 files do upload because they are assigned to a different server.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The waiting files are allowed to remain in Transfers for weeks so we do not need to worry about them. They are allowed a total of 100 upload attempts. This number is more than enough even if the wait is long but please do not reduce your 100 attempts by repeatedly pressing the Retry now button. Similarly, pressing the Update button in the Projects tab cannot not make more models download if none are available.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Check the Server status page for the condition of the servers and the availability of models. It is a good idea to subcribe to the News thread to receive email notifications of new announcements.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Thanks to all members for your patience.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 45199 - Posted 31 Oct 2012 1:08:08 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The server problems are gradually being sorted out.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Download server climateapps2 filled up last week. Among other problems this caused the credit script to fail with the result that trickles uploaded from 24 October have not yet received their credits. Jonathan has fixed this so the script should start to run again on Wednesday. Our credits will not, however, appear on the stats sites immediately as they first have to be exported by CPDN.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If you do not want your computer to be idle until CPDN can provide more climate models for download do please attach to other projects using the Tools menu in BOINC manager. When CPDN provides new work you will if you wish be able to set these other projects to No new tasks in the BOINC manager Projects tab.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Reminder: You can subscribe to this thread by pressing the Subscribe button near the top of the page. You will then receive an email to inform you whenever there is a new post here.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 45355 - Posted 20 Dec 2012 14:09:25 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Andy says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Submission of new HadCM3N CO2 ramp workunits

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        We have just submitted a new batch of HadCM3N workunits. These workunits build off a balanced subset of perturbed model parameter combinations used in the HadCM3N-CHAAOS experiment previously, but include an 80 year ramp up of CO2 forcing at 1% per year. These experiments are the precursor to future geoengineering experiments with HadCM3N investigating the effects of these various forcings on the hydrological cycle. Many thanks once again for volunteering to run these models, your input is invaluable to us!



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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 45386 - Posted 21 Dec 2012 22:54:41 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Last modified: 21 Dec 2012 22:56:04 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Happy Christmas and New Year to everyone involved in climateprediction.net!
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 45524 - Posted 31 Jan 2013 15:13:57 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Last modified: 31 Jan 2013 15:21:04 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Andy Bowery, a member of the project team, posted this to the News thread at the phpBB climateprediction.net forum. I encourage you to fill it out.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            "abowery" wrote:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Hi,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Could we ask people to fill in the below survey, it is for the upcoming Research Evaluation Exercise:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/CPDN_CEDN

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The survey is completely anonymous.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Many thanks in advance,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Andy

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 45605 - Posted 5 Mar 2013 13:33:36 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Last modified: 5 Mar 2013 13:35:40 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Andy says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              New project funded - Attributing impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather in Africa (ACE-Africa)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The CPDN team has been awarded funding for a three year project to implement a new regional climate model within Weather At Home to study the extent that climate change is affecting the magnitude and frequency of the occurrence of extreme weather events in Africa, as well as the impacts of such extreme weather events on river flow and crops.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Given limited progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and uncertain potential for adaptation to many impacts, attention in vulnerable regions and sectors is turning to the question of loss and damage. Who should bear the costs of human influence on the climate that cannot be neutralized by adaptation? So far this debate is lacking robust estimates of what these costs are. We propose to compile exemplary inventories of the impacts of such extreme weather events in the context of other drivers of regional environmental change in different regions in Africa.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              To reach the aim of this project, to quantify the link between a range of external climate drivers and observed high-impact weather in Africa and assess the implications for climate impacts, we will be working with scientists at the University of Reading and researchers working on climate impacts in Oxford. Thus bringing together experience in event attribution and regional modelling from the CPDN team, research into high-impact weather in Africa from Reading and experience in modelling hydrological impacts of changing climates from the School of Geography and the Environment at Oxford University.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 45618 - Posted 7 Mar 2013 20:08:41 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                :(

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                There's a problem with the recent batch of hadcm3n models that start in the year 2000.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                They're going to crash after 1 trickle with a REPLANCA error.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apologies.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Backups: Here

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 45674 - Posted 20 Mar 2013 20:09:30 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Andy has shut down the independent forum for backups and maintenance. We expect it to be back online by the end of the week.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 45686 - Posted 22 Mar 2013 18:44:04 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Last modified: 24 Mar 2013 0:02:57 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CPDN main project


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    I am afraid we have been forced to take the independent climateprediction.net message board (the phpbb forum) offline for investigation and maintenance. On the evening of Wednesday 20th March a hidden iframe redirect was found on a number of pages on that message board. We are currently looking into this security issue. The main portion of the CPDN website is also hosted on this server, and so this portion of the website is also offline. We hope to resolve this issue soon and restore normal services.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    This problem does not affect the availability or download of climate models and the upload servers are available as usual.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The CPDN Team
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 45711 - Posted 24 Mar 2013 0:16:50 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The problem explained in the last post which has made it necessary to shut down some climateprediction.net server programs has caused an additional problem which has just come to light.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      It is possible for new members to join the project, but at the moment it is not possible to attach computers to climateprediction.net. If you cannot attach your computer you cannot to download new climate models for the time being.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      If you are affected by this problem you can attach to other projects to keep your computer busy. In BOINC Manager in the Tools menu select Attach to project and then choose a project.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 45731 - Posted 26 Mar 2013 2:14:23 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        CPDN main project

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It is again possible to attach computers to the project and download work when it is available. Thank you, Jonathan!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Reminder: you can subscribe to this thread by pressing the button at the top and receive an email whenever a new notification is posted.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 45864 - Posted 9 Apr 2013 22:17:35 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The recent batch of hadcm3n models (issued around 5 April), has a problem which causes FORTRAN errors, as discussed in a Windows thread.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          This is not the same as the FORTRAN errors that have occurred intermittently over the years. This one is fatal.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Those on Macs and Linux will self abort shortly after starting, but on Windows systems, they just sit there not running. And will continue to do so until they time out.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          This means that they'll never return a trickle_up file, so the server can't distinguish between them and successfully running models to send a "Killer trickle". e.g. I have 2 models from a December batch which are around 85% complete. Other people will also have some that are OK.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          That means that on Windows, it has to be diy. :)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          There's a few ways to check between good and bad:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1) No trickle_up files returned. But this also depends on the mix of projects being run.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2) From the date near the top of the model's page, and also near the top of the workunit page.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3) No progress, either in the BOINC manager window, or on the Show graphics window.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The project apologises for the problem.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 45940 - Posted 16 Apr 2013 0:50:41 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Upload server uploader1.atm is down but will probably be up again soon. Very few model files upload to this server at the moment so not many CPDN members will be affected by the outage.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 45951 - Posted 16 Apr 2013 23:16:52 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              All the servers are now running.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 46518 - Posted 25 Jun 2013 23:09:23 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                As part of the ongoing problems with attaching here, it's becoming obvious that there's a very important file on everyone's computer.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                This is: account_climateprediction.net.xml
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                It has the information that the project needs to identify you.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Please make a copy (or several), and keep it in a safe place for when hardware problems occur.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Keeping the equivalent for ALL of your projects is a good idea for the same reason.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 46636 - Posted 18 Jul 2013 20:17:47 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The latest unplanned outage was caused by a hard disk failure in climateapps2, which is the BOINC server as well as an upload server.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  This disk was replaced and the raid system slowly rebuilt itself.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Then the 2nd disk was replaced, which then needed another rebuild.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The server is still trying to re-sync itself, but is being hammered by all of the computers pushing and shoving in their attempts to get their data back to the project, and to try for more work.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  And it seems that there is a new problem(s), resulting in lines of error messages appearing on various/ several/all pages.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  This has been reported.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 46696 - Posted 24 Jul 2013 14:46:18 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Planned downtime: 2 - 5 August 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The server room in which CPDN resides is due to be shut down for electrical
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    testing on 2 August 2013. The testing will take place over the weekend, and CPDN servers will be brought back online on 5 August 2013 (assuming everything goes to plan).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    There will be NO CPDN service during this time from any Oxford machines:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ClimatePrediction.net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Climateapps2.oerc.ox.ac.uk [this forum]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    cpdn-upload2.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    charybdis.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    cpdntrickle.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    uploader.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    uploader1.atm.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    cpdnbeta.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    trillionthtonne.org
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    seacourt.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    glaaki.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    kraken.oerc.ox.ac.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    wyrm.oerc.ox.ac.uk

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 46729 - Posted 29 Jul 2013 21:52:32 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Climateapps2, the BOINC server, is still having problems.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      It's very old, and is having difficulty remembering to keep all of it's volumes mounted.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Plans are under way to retire it, but in the meantime, it will help to keep it up and running if people minimise their poking and prodding. e.g. constantly looking at the server status for work, trying to upload data, (if it's possible, keep the Network set to off), etc.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 46735 - Posted 12 Aug 2013 18:59:16 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Problems are larger than initially thought. Currently, Climateapps2 isn't processing Trickles nor requests to check Server Status.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Andy is working on it.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ____________
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 46759 - Posted 13 Aug 2013 22:31:03 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          And Andy knows about the "key file" problem as well.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 46781 - Posted 15 Aug 2013 18:32:32 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1} Climateapps2 is up and running, and known major bugs were squashed. (Andy has been busy -- he's watching the store alone these days because Jonathan is away.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2) Andy wrote that he has requests from three scientists to generate more work. He'll get to it as soon as he can but we don't have a timeline yet. (He's busy cleaning-up after a long stint in 'firefighting' mode.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ____________
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 46846 - Posted 22 Aug 2013 14:52:08 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Main database server power-supply failed. Attempts to Trickle-up, for example, return: "Server error: feeder not running".

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jonathan is working on it.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 46955 - Posted 3 Sep 2013 10:10:11 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Last modified: 3 Sep 2013 10:17:25 UTC



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                The credit generation system is still not working after the climateapps2 server rebuild, the administrators are aware & have been investigating for quite some time. Once it is resolved, everyone will get the outstanding credit for work done since the original server failed (30th July).

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 47088 - Posted 18 Sep 2013 6:51:20 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Last modified: 18 Sep 2013 15:37:23 UTC


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The credit system is running now- models are being marked with credit based on trickles, and all work since the old server crashed looks like it has been credited. The export process will send this to external statistics sites within the next day or so.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • There is an anomaly with Beta-project credits, which is being looked at (EDIT - appears to be resolved now).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Duplicated trickles are appearing for a few models. This is being looked at.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 47126 - Posted 19 Sep 2013 20:45:30 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    You may, or may not, have noticed that the number of RAPIT (hadm3n) tasks available from the download server decreased considerably today. Andy B gave the following as a reason for this decrease:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    "In case there is a query on the boards: I have been asked to pause the current workunits in the queue in and put out another batch of workunits, the scientists want this other batch of workunits computed before the current workunits in the queue, so you will shortly see a drop of the queue to 2200."

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 47154 - Posted 23 Sep 2013 10:03:05 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The CPDN BOINC webpages are back up and trickles are being accepted again.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jonathan says the 403 access forbidden problem was caused by a failure to mount the project's NFS partitions after an unexpected reboot at 0300 UTC yesterday (Sunday 22 September):

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The servers running on our VM infrastructure seem to have rebooted at 4 am BST on 22 Sept.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The main webserver failed to re-mount its NFS partitions, upon which the website resides.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      This is now fixed, and I am making investigations.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 47497 - Posted 7 Nov 2013 19:37:27 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        The zips for hadcm3n (RAPID) models upload to a server external to Oxford Uni.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        This is currently out of space.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        The relevant people have been asked to urgently increase storage space.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 47722 - Posted 4 Dec 2013 17:18:02 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message from staff:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Hi All,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The CPDN website is down at the moment, the cause is the machine that hosts it is 100% full. I am currently running a query to work out where the space is being taken up, however this query is fairly slow, so I don't expect it to be up until tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Andy

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 47772 - Posted 11 Dec 2013 20:20:36 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Andy reports he was advised that the additional server is installed and being configured. It should be online tomorrow (Thursday) morning.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 47951 - Posted 8 Jan 2014 15:40:07 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jonathan says:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Hi, I have to take the project database off-line for the first of (hopefully only) two upgrades at the end of this week.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              I will schedule the downtime from:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12 Noon GMT on 10 Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              until
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12 Noon on 13 Jan 2014.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              There will be no database access during this downtime.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              For those who are interested, this the first step towards retiring our old database server, and moving her functions over to the virtualised infrastructure at the Oxford e-Research Centre.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jonathan Miller
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 47965 - Posted 13 Jan 2014 12:49:15 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Last modified: 13 Jan 2014 12:54:29 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                You will see that things are up and running again apart from one upload server. Jonathan now needs to make an extra backup and will be closing down the databases again within an hour from now. He expects this extra backup to be completed within 24 hours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                When this forum and consequently this News thread are down we always try to post updates on the boinc_dev forum in the Projects section where there's a thread for news of server outages from all projects here.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 47969 - Posted 14 Jan 2014 12:23:34 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Last modified: 14 Jan 2014 12:28:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  There has been a recent unintended release of old HADCM3N models. If you have a model whose work unit has any result marked as "no resubmission" then please abort it.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Edit: This should apply only to HADCM3N models whose names begin with '7' - such as this one of mine hadcm3n_7ch1_1980_40_008427448_1.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 48088 - Posted 3 Feb 2014 20:49:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    More about unwanted models:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The "no re-submission" only appears the first time it's applied to the data set.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Subsequent reappearances caused by the BOINC problem don't have the message.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    You need to look in the Work unit column to see it.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    There is now a very long "deadline" to block BOINC's automatic and unwanted re-submissions for a VERY long time. Currently this is the year 2023.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    So, keep aborting them until they're all gone. And, as there's no real work at the moment, setting cpdn to No new tasks in the Projects tab until there is, will stop you from getting more of these unwanted tasks.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Backups: Here

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 48110 - Posted 7 Feb 2014 14:37:43 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Last modified: 7 Feb 2014 14:43:05 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      A batch of 5,500 HadAM3P PNW tasks was released this morning.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      They were initially getting download errors (due to an incorrect download URL), but that was fixed at 1240 UTC. The server status page is currently showing that 3,134 have still to be sent.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The models are being run with a new version (7.22) of the application. This has a completely new graphics engine and changes to the post-processing. It was tested on CPDN Beta last week where a number of graphics issues were reported. These will be fixed but the timeline for the new batch of work was too tight for that to be done before releasing the work.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The known problems are:


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1. No text will be shown unless you have the sidebar enabled. You can do this by typing 'Z' in the graphics window.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2. The model date, sec/TS and checkpoint countdown are missing.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3. There are no labels on the colour scales.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4. A number of key actions (including 'Z') are missing from the help display.


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 48237 - Posted 26 Feb 2014 17:09:25 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Last modified: 26 Feb 2014 17:15:22 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        A batch of work for the RAPIT project (HadCM3N) has been released this afternoon (the workunt for the task I just picked up was created an hour ago).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Unsurprisingly they are disappearing very quickly (according to the server status page there are 867 left).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Edit: 5 minutes later and we're down to 561 left ...
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 48526 - Posted 25 Mar 2014 18:18:38 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Last modified: 25 Mar 2014 19:53:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          The data sets for the ANZ Weather@Home project are starting to appear.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          There's a page about it the front section, here

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 48709 - Posted 4 Apr 2014 19:13:45 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Norwegian member Tullus has designed an extra Server Status page which as well as showing the number of models of each type available has graphs to show model availability through time. Here it is:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            http://ob.cakebox.net/cpdn_status/server_status.html

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            He's still working on it and discussing it in this forum thread.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            If Tullus's clever app ever isn't available, CPDN's official Server Status page always has a link in the menu on the left-hand-side of this page. (If uploads or downloads aren't working properly you should still look there to see whether any servers are down.)

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 48736 - Posted 8 Apr 2014 2:10:31 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              CPDN Beta

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Andy has said:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Hi All,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The Beta server has a serious issue at present that's preventing it being updated, I am afraid it is going to have to remain offline until we can look at it again tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Andy

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 48744 - Posted 9 Apr 2014 22:10:35 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Warning

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                BOINC version 7.2.39 has a sever bug which causes file transfer errors.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                If you're still using this version, please upgrade IMMEDIATELY to 7.2.42

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 48807 - Posted 15 Apr 2014 20:00:23 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  NO RESUBMISSION tasks are in the mix again. See the second paragraph of mo.v's post here:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  http://climateapps2.oerc.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/forum_thread.php?id=7739&nowrap=true#48049

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  If the HadCM3N task is named 7??? and the Work Unit is marked 'No Resubmission' it should be aborted.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sorry about that.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 48848 - Posted 18 Apr 2014 20:36:20 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A large batch of data sets has become available for a new model type, hadam3pm2.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    These are models that use the new "land surface scheme", MOSES II. (Surface Exchange Scheme).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    They're for a project called HYDRA.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    These models will create very large amounts of data to be uploaded, so:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Warning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    zips 1-9 are about 64.5 Megabytes, and zip 10 is just under 95 Megabytes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Also, the BOINC listed values for "Remaining (estimated)", and the "Percentage done", are completely and totally incorrect.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    On my Haswell machine with 4770K processor, and running no other projects, they took 218 hours.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 48854 - Posted 19 Apr 2014 15:23:03 UTC - in response to Message 48848.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Following up on Les's post on the new MOSES II model, I'd also like to add

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1. These are for Linux and Mac only at this time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2. The graphics do not work.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      A large batch of data sets has become available for a new model type, hadam3pm2.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      These are models that use the new "land surface scheme", MOSES II. (Surface Exchange Scheme).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      They're for a project called HYDRA.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      These models will create very large amounts of data to be uploaded, so:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Warning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      zips 1-9 are about 64.5 Megabytes, and zip 10 is just under 95 Megabytes.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Also, the BOINC listed values for "Remaining (estimated)", and the "Percentage done", are completely and totally incorrect.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      On my Haswell machine with 4770K processor, and running no other projects, they took 218 hours.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 49092 - Posted 14 May 2014 0:24:02 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        From Jonathan:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Hi,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        We are having a problem with the domain name climateprediction.net.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It was renewed at the weekend, but the registrar seems to have broken something and the name is not propagating correctly through the DNS system.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        We have reached the point where the domain climateprediction.net has lapsed in the majority of ISP's name servers, so the main website is not visible.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        We have contacted the registrar, but they have taken no action so far.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        I will update you as we find out more.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jonathan Miller

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 49307 - Posted 5 Jun 2014 15:11:27 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message from Jonathan:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We are undertaking maintenance work on the Virtual Machine server infrastructure at Oxford e-Research Centre.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Our servers will be 'at risk' on Monday - Thursday for the next three weeks:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9, 10, 11 & 12 June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          16, 17, 18 & 19 June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          23, 24, 25 & 26 June 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          There is no plan for 'downtime' on any of our services, but we will be running without backup support during this period.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Additionally, over the next couple of days there will be a series of brief outages as we put in place contingencies to guard against total lack of service in the event of a serious problem developing during the maintenance.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jonathan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jonathan Miller
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ClimatePrediction.Net, University of Oxford

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ____________
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 49378 - Posted 18 Jun 2014 22:47:03 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            During uploads of EU zips, I've started getting the following messages for cpdn-upload2.oerc:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Server is out of disk space, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            No space left on server.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            This started about 20 minutes ago.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            I've emailed the project people.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 49604 - Posted 22 Jul 2014 1:07:06 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Last modified: 22 Jul 2014 1:10:34 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              More upload server failures :(

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The project has been notified.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Edit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Just to be clear, they also know about the Feeder failure.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 49872 - Posted 26 Aug 2014 17:43:00 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Staff has been advised about Trickle failures and outages. Andy is looking onto it.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ____________
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message 50088 - Posted 9 Sep 2014 21:31:16 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  As the Number Crunching threads about credits have attracted a lot of "chatter", I've decided to post here.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The credit bloat was due to the script somehow getting run twice, using the same temp file without a "clear" in between.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  It was said last week that it was going to be re-done, but nothing has happened.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  There has been no contact with the project people for a while now.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  The University of Oxford is still on Long Vacation, with, I would guess, minimal staff everywhere. And this would be the time that serious building work would be done. If anything goes wrong with the network of computers, "our" two people may well be required/requested to help out elsewhere for a while.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  If anyone has an urgent need for constant, accurate, credits to keep track of something, then cpdn is, currently, not the place to be.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hopefully things will get better sometime this decade. :)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Message 50116 - Posted 11 Sep 2014 5:19:38 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A manual run of the script(s)has corrected credits.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Message 50592 - Posted 22 Oct 2014 22:34:37 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Last modified: 5 Nov 2014 7:58:44 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      I've posted some notes on the latest experiment using hadcm3n, here in the Science section.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Message 50640 - Posted 27 Oct 2014 21:07:27 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Last modified: 28 Oct 2014 4:24:26 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Urgent

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        It appears that there's a setup problem with the "r" series of Hadcm3n models.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Please Abort any that are running, or which start to download.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        All remaining have been removed from the queue, but re-sends will go on for some time.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        The "s" series are OK.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        edit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oops. That should be hadcm3n.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Fixed the above.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Message 50880 - Posted 24 Nov 2014 19:35:37 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Re. HadCM3s 'short' tasks for year 2007:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          From staff:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          . . . We have cancelled the outstanding hadcm3s 2007 workunits and contacted the scientist involved who is going to investigate the issue further.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Andy


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Like the set Les noted above, this is another deprecated task-set and any in your Task list should be aborted. Same with any 'retreads' which might fall to your machine(s).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We'll surely see this batch again after the scientist fixes the problem.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ____________
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Greetings from coastal Washington state, the scenic US Pacific Northwest.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Profile Iain Inglis
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Message 50922 - Posted 2 Dec 2014 12:39:24 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            New models just released for ANZ experiment looking at role of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on recent extreme weather events in Australia.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Les Bayliss
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Message 50931 - Posted 3 Dec 2014 23:30:18 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              There's a new batch of hadam3pm2 models for Linux only.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Andy has said that these have corrected run-time-estimates, and are the most important of the various models available to process.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Message 50943 - Posted 4 Dec 2014 23:35:30 UTC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Extrapolating somewhat from a Facebook link ...

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                6000 model runs released for the UCS CA drought project. Robert Mera will present results at AGU14!


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ... presumably describes the new PNW models that have just appeared.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Message boards : Number crunching : News and Announcements




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