Posts by Pete B

41) Message boards : Number crunching : 7 days no trickles (Message 13737) Posted 22 Jun 2005 by Pete B Post: davidmcw said: > OK, since your nice guys, I'll stop moaning, afterall compared to SETI, LHC, > etc, the CPDN servers to tend to be pretty stable. > I noticed that also with the other projects while looking at LHC (no work being given out ATM as the project is still in Beta phase) the Einstein boards (the same kind of problems) for some split project work so have decided to stick here. I had just began to wonder with approaching 100k runs of the simple HadSM3 model and non of the later stage experiments ready for general release yet, whether each run was still giving as much useful information. Just for comparison, some of the recent problems, though frustrating (mainly through the lack of feedback) are nothing compared to those which used to happen when the only other distributive computing project I have ever run (United Devices) first came on line 4 years ago. Things were so bad with final uploads at one time, I had a batch file running just to back up the running model automatically every 2 hours or so so that if an upload failed, I'd got various backups I could try to upload manually. Pete
42) Message boards : Number crunching : Time to give more time to Einstein! (Message 13734) Posted 22 Jun 2005 by Pete B Post: Ertugrul Gocken said: > Well, that wasn't my experience... I had a trickle missing in my last model > (<a> href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?resultid=546416">result > here</a>, number of trickles is 71), but as you can see <a> href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/workunit.php?wuid=366381">here</a> > it got uploaded and reported just fine. > > Maybe something else has happened with your model(s)... > Yes, looks like it was an isolated problem for me then, perhaps at the time the final upload occurred for the affected model. It seems the trickles are beginning to show again now though. I'll upload my backlog a few (2-3) at a time until they are all up to date, while at the same time suspending one of my runs now which is about 1 hr away from a phase change until it becomes clear that all is OK again. Pete
43) Message boards : Number crunching : Time to give more time to Einstein! (Message 13694) Posted 22 Jun 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there John E Hopkinson said: > On my last model, just before uploading, Les Bayliss pointed out that I had > missed a trickle in Phase 1 (!). Les helped me to manoever around a little and > tried to rescue it, with some modest success. Thyme Lawn assured me that the > science was intact, and the model would be productive. _BUT_ the Results for > the model show the server state "in progress" and the outcome "unknown". Even > today. (Could that change when the servers feel better? Maybe) Regardless of missing 'mid experiment' trickles, the entire scientific data will be received when the model completes and uploads. However, in my experience, unless a complete set of 72 trickles has been received for the run at the time of final upload, the server state will show as "Over" but the Outcome will remain as "unknown" and the Client State as "New". So if you want to have models showing as "Over", "Success" and "Done", ensure you restore missing trickles by any of the methods given by various contributors on the main php boards before the model completes. The problems are now reported as fixed but it will take a while to clear upload backlogs etc so it may be wise to suspend models very close to end of phase or final upload for a day or so until everything is running correct again. That is what I have done. HTH Pete
44) Message boards : Number crunching : Can I finish a workunit under a different account? (Message 12767) Posted 21 May 2005 by Pete B Post: > I have two pc and two account one for each pc. > > Can I move a workunit from pc-1 to pc-2 and finish the workunit on that pc? > If you copy the complete BOINC folder over to another PC, then it will continue to run on that new PC (assuming the PC is stable and has a compatible operating system on it). All the account data is contained within files in the BOINC folder so it will continue to run under the account that the WU was set up under.
45) Message boards : Number crunching : Announcement: Database residual problem - misallocated WUs (Message 12694) Posted 19 May 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there The following WU, 2vy7_300156078_0, <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?resultid=850098">Result ID#850098</a> was downloaded by Amy, <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/show_host_detail.php?hostid=168273">ID#168273</a> on Monday 16th May. It was not registered to Amy, but later appeared as registered to the following machine <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/show_host_detail.php?hostid=141454">ID#141454</a> Checking the results for that machine shows the outcome as unknown and with a credit of 472.59. Tracing ths credit through the 5 trickles for the WU show that they were obtained, not by the registered machine ID#141454, but by machine ID#168273, i.e. Amy. That WU has now been stopped and deleted from Amy on 18th May after 5 trickles so no further credit will ever appear that is allocated to Amy. A replacement model was downloaded which is properly registered and running. Pete
46) Message boards : Number crunching : Anyone else having probs. ? (Message 11937) Posted 19 Apr 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there I have the same problem. No trickles showing for either of my two model runs since 18th April @ 14:02 hrs. Since then, 1 model has uploaded and a new one started, the other has changed from Phase 1 to 2 but nothing showing so I don't know whether the data has uploaded OK or not. I see there are no comments at all from the Project team either regarding server status etc so I am now back to a Classic model for the time being so as to not potentially waste time/effort on the BOINC runs if the data is not uploading properly. Pete
47) Message boards : Cafe CPDN : Supervolcano Docu/drama (Message 10801) Posted 13 Mar 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there Not directly related to climate but no doubt some element of climate change will come into <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/index.shtml">this</a> docu/drama on BBC1/2 (UK TV Channels) tonight and tomorrow. Should be worth watching. Pete
48) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : SCHEDULER_REPLY::parse(): bad first tag Content-type: text/plain (Message 10725) Posted 11 Mar 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there I kept getting these errors also this afternoon from approx 14:00 to 17:00 (UK time, so in the same real time range as yourself) during repeated attempts at normal trickles. It looks like a temporary server problem therefore so no doubt it will be resolved in time. Pete
49) Message boards : Cafe CPDN : Large Nrthn Hemisphere Temp Swings - Real World (Message 10393) Posted 4 Mar 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there Take a visit <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/02032005news.shtml">here</a>, especially para's 5 & 6. Remember, some of these areas were having some of their highest temperatures ever recorded only 19 months ago in August 2003. This means over a period of only 18 months, some regions of Europe will have experienced their widest temperature variations ever recorded! It beats my personal experience by a long way - Nr East Kilbride in Scotland in early July 1995, temperatures were hitting the low 30's C. 6 months later in late December 1995, they were hitting -20 C in the same area, a 6 month swing of just over 50C. I don't think I'll ever experience that wide a swing in the UK again. It just goes to show, GW or not, it can still get cold. Pete
50) Message boards : Cafe CPDN : Climate change - New Scientist (Message 10038) Posted 26 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there Read the Pg 38 article <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524861.400">here,</a> Part of the Pg 8 news article <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524864.300">here</a> and part of the editorial <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524863.400">here</a> Pete
51) Message boards : Cafe CPDN : In pictures: How the world is changing (Message 9480) Posted 17 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > Interesting. And worrying. Yes, I had seen that and it is worrying. Make sure you see <a href="http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/">this</a> link also, it can be followed through as a link from the last page in the sequence from the BBC link. > There was a lighthouse somewhere in England that was dragged back from the > cliff edge, which was crumbling away. > Beachy head? I saw the start of the process on tv. Were they successful? > > And there have been images over the last few years of other structures around > the > British coast toppling into the sea. > Any politicians have houses on the coast / in low lying areas? If they did, they would only ensure that they were protected from further trouble using taxpayers money, almost certainly at the expense of lesser people along the nearby coastline/riverbank :-( Then they wonder why fewer people can be bothered with any of them, at least here in the UK. Pete
52) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Another cold equator run (Message 9068) Posted 10 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > Here is a temperature time series from my most recent completed run. > <img> src="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/runimage/493191_AT.png"> > > It definitely had a cold equator and the earth cooled as well. This is the > first cold equator run I've had since March, in about 30 completed runs. I have only ever had one true "Cold Pacific Equator" run, that was <a href="http://cpdn.comlab.ox.ac.uk/user/getrun.php?stype=AT&runid=199101">Stacey's</a> last live uploaded run before the offline comparison expt. This was a Classic model initially downloaded/finally uploaded using Amy, hence the credit for the run being to Amy. It did not redevelop in Phase 3 though, only ever a couple of cells that consistently stayed in the 0-6 deg range. I did notice though that the 'entrainment coefficient' and 'critical relative humidity' values in my run and your run were the same, although I don't know whether this is significant. Presumably, these results will decline in number as the team get to know what parameter sets cause them and they are therefore removed from future expts as not representative. Pete
53) Message boards : Number crunching : Amy/Stacey/Jayne - The Final Phase 3 Results (Message 9048) Posted 9 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > Hi Pete, thanks for all the work and throwing those graphics up there. Looks > like Amy was about 1/2 degree cooler than the other two at the end of the > model run. Not too much compared to how warm they all got. Stacy and Jayne > were amazingly close on the time series. From your other graphics, it looks > very much like the weather differed significantly on the seasonal time scale > in some places, but the overall earth average was very close. > Hi there The results machine to machine are all pretty close, much closer than I expected. I also wanted to add these Phase 3 warming results for NH winter and Summer but ran out of time last night. Amy Phase 3 Winter 2050 to 2064 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Amy_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Amy_Ph3_NHWinter_Warming.png"> Amy Phase 3 Summer 2051 to 2065 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Amy_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Amy_Ph3_NHSummer_Warming.png"> Stacey Phase 3 Winter 2050 to 2064 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Stacey_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Stacey_Ph3_NHWinter_Warming.png"> Stacey Phase 3 Summer 2051 to 2065 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Stacey_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Stacey_Ph3_NHSummer_Warming.png"> Jayne Phase 3 winter 2050 to 2064 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Jayne_Ph3_NHWinter_Warming.png"> Jayne Phase 3 Summer 2051 to 2065 <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Jayne_Ph3_NHSummer_Warming.png"> Nothing much to add to what the CO2 warming theory already says i.e. most of the warming occurs in the high latitude regions, especially in the Arctic. The NH summers show a fair amount of land warmimg also. Pete
54) Message boards : Number crunching : Amy/Stacey/Jayne - The Final Phase 3 Results (Message 8949) Posted 8 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: Hi there Just to recap: Amy and Stacey are both identical Dell Optiplex GX270 Tower Systems with same BIOS, MoBo, Std air cooling, 512Mb RAM, 80Gb HDD, video etc apart from: Amy - 3.2GHz P4 H/T (with H/T on and continually running 2nd unrelated CPDN model concurrently), 1Mb cache, 800MHz FSB, WinXP (Home) SP2. Stacey - 3.0Ghz P4 H/T (with H/T on but not running any other DC programs during this experiment), 512kb cache, 800MHz FSB, WinXP (Pro) SP1. Jayne - the name (for this experiment) given to geophi's AMD64 machine, further description will need to come from geophi. Phase 3 Temperature/Time Trace <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_Jayne_Ph3_Temp_Time_Trace.png"> Not much to say about that, it's all too close to call. Amy-Stacey Summer 2051 Global Temp Difference <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_2051_Global_Temp_Diff.png"> Amy-Jayne Summer 2051 Global Temp Difference <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Jayne_2051_Global_Temp_Diff.png"> In both cases, warmer and colder areas seem evenly distributed. Amy-Stacey Summer 2065 Global Temp Difference <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_2065_Global_Temp_Diff.png"> Warmer and colder areas for Amy's World seem fairly evenly distributed. Amy-Jayne Summer 2065 Global Temp Difference <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Jayne_2065_Global_Temp_Diff.png"> This time, much greater -ve (and a smaller area of +ve) temperature anomalies are present in Amy's Antarctic region. I don't know what the regional differences mean though in terms of different computation. It would be interesting to see how a heavily overclocked machine handled this model compared to these 3 machines. Pete
55) Message boards : Number crunching : \'ping\' geophi (Message 8906) Posted 8 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > How's it going Pete? Are they getting close to completion? > Hi Yes, Amy completed sometime over the weekend. I have been away for a few days and she was left running unattended so I didn't see any later stages via the BOINC visualisations or the point of final results upload but the BOINC final completed result for the model is <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?field=Temperature&resultid=466808&phase=AT#graph">Temp here</a> and <a href="http://climateapps2.oucs.ox.ac.uk/cpdnboinc/result.php?field=Precipitation&resultid=466808&phase=AP#graph">Pptn here</a>. Final average Global Temperature just above 19C. During my days away, Stacey was switched off but should complete today so I should be able to do the CPView comparison of Phase 3 results later today. What I did see using the BOINC visualisations on Amy before I went away though was a great mass of white 'temperature overload' during the last but one NH summer over all the tropical and NH sub tropical land regions. Pete
56) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Exeter conference- Guardian article (Message 8610) Posted 4 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > I've tried to find a journal reference to Professor Schlesinger's comments, he > seems highly respected and so probably should be listened to. He seems to be > in the high climate sensitivies to CO2 cannot be ruled out camp (in his case > 10% prob greater than 6.8C). Did Professor Schlesinger actually refer to the 50% chance of THC shutdown issue? I have 'Googled' around both on Pofessor Michael Schlesinger and Thermohaline/gulf stream 50% shutdown and cannot find any reference to the 50% chance issue. I did however, find <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2004/2004121418002.html">this</a> which may be a brief summary of the type of information he gave at the Conference. Unfortunately, his Conference paper (Assessing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation) is not available for download but I wonder if it would be available if one e-mailed him direct at The University of Illinois? > > Incidentally, one of the the papers in the Exeter Conference referring to > the > > THC shutdown (using the HadCM3 model as opposed to the HadSM3 model that > was > > run last year in CPDN) is <a> href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf">here</a>. > > > > Quote from the Richard Wood's paper: > > "Comprehensive GCM climate projections suggest that the most likely response > of the THC to global warming over the next century is a slowdown of around > 0-50%. No models have shown a complete shutdown, or a net cooling over land > areas." What I did find during the searching was many references to the "up to 50% slowdown" issue though. As well as the Richard Wood Paper, <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/2005/CLIMATE_CHANGE_JOURNAL_150.pdf">this</a> and without any further information available at present, I wondered if the press reporters have got issues confused and turned a slowdown of up to 50% into a 50% chance of slow/shutdown. Although not related to the THC as such, I also found <a href="http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/publications/Causes_of_dT.pdf">this</a> relevant (to the overall issue of temperature change) and informative paper from Professor Schlesinger as one of the co authors. Pete
57) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Exeter conference- Guardian article (Message 8555) Posted 3 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > I wonder what would be the "critical mass" to get politicians to take this > threat seriously? Would it be something drastic as a THC shutdown, or > extinction of polar bears, or ? While I don't think there's anywhere near > enough evidence to tell everyone "The Day After Tomorrow will be a reality," > it irks me that stuff like Iraq war & tax cuts & slashing social > programs BECAUSE of the Iraq War & tax cuts & investing US Social > Security pensions into the next Enron/stock market debacle is the "highest > priority." ;-) > Unfortunately, I don't think polar bears would come very high up the scale of "critical mass" issues because it has no direct effect :-(( One problem is that Man seems to prefer the status quo so the "critical mass" event has to be something that comes right home with a bang before anything happens. The Iraq (or the rest of the so called "axis of evil" stuff) thing probably would never have happened but for the "critical mass" event of Sept 11 2001. In terms of climate change therefore the "critical mass" event will only be when climate change has gone far enough to have a significant, continous and drastic effect on the West and if that happens, it will be much too late. I remember listening to a radio program on climate change (purely coincidentally) on Aug 10 2003 during a long drive up to Glasgow. The UK temp record of that day still had to be broken at the time it was on but the overall conclusion was that in general, the politicians of Europe and the US would only wake up to it when it had gone so far that crop failures, long and repeated droughts or other major weather changes came right onto our doorsteps. I suppose though, it is one of those things that can be changed by us all as individuals, whatever out leaders think. The more people that can be pulled 'on board' to recognise the potential long term seriousness of climate change and therefore sufficiently change their own behaviour in reducing their personal contributions has to be a step in the right direction. In spite of the fact that, as a scientist, I personally still need to be convinced 100% of the CO2 link to the undisputable Global Warming (one of the reasons I am running CPDN - it is the only expt we can do, the alternative practical one is not acceptable in case the link is correct) I have taken multiple steps to reduce my own contribution. Such things as turning my heating thermostat down 3 degC on previous years and relying more on clothing for that extra bit of warmth when required. Changing my large car for something smaller and with only 1/2 the official CO2/km output. This is the first time I have given any consideration to the CO2 issue when selecting a 'new' car and not just gone for one of the biggest engines in the chosen car range. The more that can be persuaded to think that these little bits do matter then the better, although even then it is only part way there. Pete
58) Message boards : climateprediction.net Science : Exeter conference- Guardian article (Message 8487) Posted 2 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > Article in Wednesday's grauniad: Hotter world may freeze Britain > <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1403798,00.html">Fifty-fifty chance that warm Gulf Stream may be halted</a> Thanks for that. I heard it this morning on R4's Newspaper review but couldn't remember which paper they said it was in. I noted the 50/50 because I thought up until now, the THC slow/shutdown was supposed to be a low probability/high impact issue. 50/50 is hardly a low probability issue. Incidentally, one of the the papers in the Exeter Conference referring to the THC shutdown (using the HadCM3 model as opposed to the HadSM3 model that was run last year in CPDN) is <a href="http://www.stabilisation2005.com/33_Richard_Wood.pdf">here</a>. This shows that the region affected by the resultant temperature reduction is much smaller in area than that implied in either of the two live online (and a further one offline for my own study) CPDN THC models I completed, all of which showed the effect over a much wider area of the Northern Hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how different the area affected is if any similar sub experiment is built into the HadCM3 model runs to come later with CPDN. Pete
59) Message boards : Number crunching : \'ping\' geophi (Message 8388) Posted 1 Feb 2005 by Pete B Post: > Pete, uploaded all pe files from phase 3 in a zipped file to the Pete_B > directory on tuxie. I'll look forward to the comparison when you finish. > > It finished somewhere between 19 and 19.5 C so it was a hot one. > > Cheers! Hi there Thanks geophi, downloaded the data now. I'm still waiting for completion of Amy & Stacey's runs but I have just played around with a bit of your data to produce the Phase 3 Temperature /Time graph and a difference map of summer temperature between the start of Phase 3 (Summer 2051) and the end (Summer 2065) to show how much different regions have warmed over the phase. Time/Temperature Graph <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Ph3_Temperature_Time.png"> Phase 3 Summer Temperature Change <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Jayne_Data/WU248363/Phase_3/Jayne_Ph3_NHSummer_Warming.png"> As so often predicted, most of the warming (NH Summer) is at high latitude in the Antarctic (SH winter). Also, South America and part of the USA along with part of Africa, the Arab world and the North Atlantic to the North and North West of the UK show a large temp increase. The bulk of the Worlds ocean regions though have warmed by between 1 and 6C. I will follow with my own comparative data in due course including overlaying the Phase 3 Temperature/Time graph for all 3 runs on the same axes and an NH winter temperature change over the phase for the 3 runs. Pete
60) Message boards : Number crunching : \'ping\' geophi (Message 8184) Posted 30 Jan 2005 by Pete B Post: > > Hi > > > > If geophi is monitoring these BOINC CPDN boards, it would be interesting > to > > know how his AMD64 comparison of the 'unofficial' offline experiment on > > WU248363 (2whn_000156785_1) with specific ref to Phase 2 has gone > compared to > > the Amy/Stacey result discussed in the "same parameter different result" > > thread. > > > > For what it's worth, at present both Amy and Stacey in Phase 3 are > calculating > > a very rapid warming trend (already above 16C global mean) after 4 years > for > > this particular model. Appears to be the fastest rate of Phase 3 > temperature > > rise I have yet observed in 10 CPDN runs. > > > > Pete > > > Hi Pete, > > Yes, I've been monitoring. My run is at 94% of completion. At year 4 of > phase 3, it was about 16.3 mean annual temperature. At year 12, it was about > 18.5C. It's still rising quite nicely (or badly if you will). Hi geophi Good result there, yours appears to have been more steady in Phase 2 than either of mine. Just for completeness, I will try reposting the same links here (using the hyperlinks this time - thanks for the tip on how to get it to work on these BOINC boards) so all can be seen in the same thread Comparative Temperature Trace: <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_Ph_2_Temp_Trace(m).png"> Amy Temperature Map, Summer 1840: <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Amy_Data/WU248363/Amy_Summer_1840.png"> Stacey Temperature Map, Summer 1840: <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Stacey_Data/WU248363/Stacey_Summer_1840.png"> Amy - Stacey Differential Temperature Map, Summer 1840: <img src="http://cpdn.tuxie.org/Pete_B/Combined_Data/Amy_Stacey_Summer_1840.png"> I will post a complete summary once the experiment has completed. Perhaps at that time, you could dump your entire .pe directory for Phase 3 onto the tuxie site so I can download it and create a 3 way comparison for Phase 3. Pete

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